超出两度目标

柏林——

在国际气候政策界中,把全球变暖限制在高出工业革命前水平两摄氏度以内这一目标获得了广泛的共识。然而,由于联合国气候谈判在短期内不会取得突破,加上当前的碳排放趋势无法扭转,因此达到两度目标几乎不可能。

但是如果各国首脑抛弃了这一目标,那么他们必须就新气候目标的结构和幅度做出彻底的战略性决定。因此国际气候政策需要经历一次典范转移。从政治上来看,科学地让各国排放预算根据把全球温度上限值而设定是行不通的。相反,那些出台强力气候政策的国家应该宣传高效的目标设定方法。

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