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从更好的赌局中更好地学习

费城—公共争论的过程令人抑郁地熟悉。它常常从惊奇开始——比如,转型电视真人秀明星的房地产大亨唐纳德·特朗普令人大跌眼镜地成为美国共和党总统提名代表。然后,专家出场。为什么会这样?这意味着什么?接下去会怎样?

一段时间后,作为争论对象的未来会水落石出。在理想的世界里,每个人都会看到哪个预测是正确的。人们将学习教训,据此改变思维。集体而言,我们都会变得更聪明一点。

但这是不那么理想的世界。常常,专家并不学习教训,而只是继续争论。他们争论发生的事情。他们不承认谁预测了哪个结果。没人改变思维。集体而言,我们没有变聪明。

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