«Портфельный» подход к изменению климата

Страны мира добились совсем небольшого успеха в попытке сократить выбросы углекислого газа в соответствии с Киотским протоколом. Тем не менее, огромные усилия, потраченные на введение протокола в силу, показывают, как много работы потребуется, чтобы составить новый договор, который должен быть заключён в Копенгагене в декабре 2009 г. Борцы с выбросами углекислого газа будут продвигать жёсткие и многообещающие политические курсы, но будет продолжаться сильное сопротивление стран, озабоченных своей экономической жизнеспособностью.

Новые переговоры будут иметь одно преимущество перед предыдущими попытками, т.к. правительства теперь понимают необходимость «портфельного» подхода, направленного на адаптацию, уменьшение воздействия на окружающую среду и исследования. Новое исследование, которые мы с моими коллегами провели для Центра «Копенгагенский консенсус» в Дании, определяет эффективность различных методов борьбы с данной глобальной проблемой, оно также в значительной степени поддерживает «портфельный» подход по нескольким причинам.

Во-первых, теперь мы знаем, что адаптация будет необходима, т.к. температура поднимется ещё на 0,6°C к 2100 г., даже если выбросы парниковых газов будут устранены уже завтра. Мы также знаем, что воздействие изменения климата будет неравномерно распространено по земному шару.

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