„Portfolioansatz“ beim Klimawandel

Die Welt hat bisher weitgehend erfolglos versucht, im Rahmen des Kyotoprotokolls die CO2-Emissionen zu senken. Die enormen Anstrengungen, die es gekostet hat, das Protokoll in Kraft zu setzen, zeigen nichtsdestotrotz, wie viel Arbeit erforderlich sein wird, um das nächste Vertragswerk, das im Dezember 2009 in Kopenhagen verabschiedet werden soll, herbeizuführen. Seine Befürworter werden auf kompromisslose und weit reichende Grundsätze drängen, doch wird es weiter starken Widerstand von über ihre wirtschaftliche Dynamik besorgten Ländern geben.

Die neuen Verhandlungen werden gegenüber den früheren Bemühungen einen Vorteil haben, denn den Regierungen ist inzwischen die Notwendigkeit eines Portfolios aus Anpassungs-, Abfederungs- und Forschungsmaßnahmen bewusst. Neue Untersuchungen, die meine Kollegen und ich für das Copenhagen Consensus Center in Dänemark durchgeführt haben, befassen sich mit der Effektivität unterschiedlicher Reaktionen auf diese globale Herausforderung, bestätigen jedoch aus verschiedenen Gründen nachhaltig den Portfolioansatz.

Zunächst einmal wissen wir inzwischen, dass wir uns werden anpassen müssen, denn die Temperaturen werden bis ins Jahr 2100 um weitere 0,6° C steigen, selbst wenn wir schon morgen auf sämtliche Klimagase verzichten. Wir wissen außerdem, dass sich die Auswirkungen des Klimawandels global ungleichmäßig bemerkbar machen werden.

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