While there are chances that Kenya may experience a repeat of the 2007/08 post-election violence, this article paints an excessively gloomy and dark picture of Kenya's future.
Given the aftermath of the 2007 elections, it was imperative that Kenya's electoral system be radically restructured. This was necessarily a time-bound exercise as the next elections were only within five years. On this basis, the focus on implementing the constitutional provisions pertaining to elections is understandable and indeed should be applauded.
Nevertheless, several other provisions of the new Constititution not directly linked to elections have also been implemented and continue to be implemented.
It also sounds incredibly disingenous to state that the underlying motivation for devolution of power to the local government "is the creation of more legislative positions", supposedly for the political class. It is worth recalling that one of the main causes of the post-election violence was the centralization of the political system, which, in Kenya's patron-client framework of politics, meant a winner-take-all, almost zero-sum game of political contest. The Constitution sought to address this through devolution.
However, it is agreeable that much still needs to be done to address inequality in the country as well as the root causes of ethnic tensions, such as land marginalization and internally displaced persons.
China has begun to build a parallel international order, centered on itself. If the European Union aids in its construction – even just by positioning itself on the fault line between China and the United States – it risks toppling key pillars of its own edifice and, eventually, collapsing altogether.
Now that the old rules governing macroeconomic cycles no longer seem to apply, it remains to be seen what might cause the next recession in the United States. But if recent history is our guide, the biggest threat stems not from the US Federal Reserve or any one sector of the economy, but rather from the White House.
Amid much discussion of the challenges facing the Chinese economy, the line-up of usual suspects typically excludes the most worrying scenario of all: popular unrest. While skeptics would contend that widespread protest against the regime and its policies is unlikely, events elsewhere suggest that China is not immune.
From Beirut to Hong Kong to Santiago, governments are eager to bring an end to mass demonstrations. But, in the absence of greater institutional responsiveness to popular grievances and demands, people are unlikely to stay home.