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NEW HAVEN – ¿Está la economía china a punto de colapsar? Un país cargado de deudas, con burbujas inmobiliarias, empresas estatales zombi y bancos en dificultades, a China se la describe cada vez más como el próximo desastre en un mundo propenso a las crisis.
Sigo convencido de que esos temores son exagerados, y de que China tiene la estrategia, los medios y la determinación para lograr una dramática transformación estructural hacia una sociedad de consumo basada en servicios, a pesar de la situación desfavorable del ciclo económico mundial. Pero también soy consciente de que hoy mi opinión es minoritaria.
Por ejemplo, el secretario del Tesoro de los Estados Unidos, Jacob J. Lew, sigue expresando la idea bastante desconcertante de que Estados Unidos “no puede ser el único motor de la economía mundial”. Y en realidad, no lo es: todo indica que este año el aporte de la economía china al crecimiento global será más de cuatro veces superior al de Estados Unidos. Pero tal vez, al hacer su evaluación de la economía mundial, Lew ya supone lo peor para China.
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