信心是胜利的根本

纽海文——4月2日,20国集团将在伦敦举行峰会,会议的主题是,为了应对目前面临的经济危机,如何建立一个国际间相互合作协调的方案。这正是我们目前所关心的问题。难道这方案真的会管用么?

当然,问题的关键还是信心问题。面临着波及全球范围的经济危机,世界各地的人们,不管是消费着还是投资者,都在削减开支,就象1930年代的大萧条那样。当时的亲历者温思罗普·凯斯在1938年这样写到:经济的复苏靠的是“企业和个人愿意投资和消费,而且需要持续相当长的一段时间。对个人来说,就是要对自己的工作有信心,对企业来说,就是老板对所从事的行业有信心。”不幸的是,直到第二次世界大战结束,信心才开始恢复,萧条真正得以结束。

伦敦参会的领袖们必须有一个清晰的财政目标,那就是保证充分的就业和信贷市场的正常化;同时,保证借贷市场的正常化也很重要。人们只有在有了工作,有了借贷信用的时候,才会正常的消费。这样才不会重导大萧条时代的覆辙。仅仅依靠财政刺激方案是不可能获得成功的。

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