O que está a atrasar a economia mundial?

NOVA IORQUE – Sete anos depois de ter irrompido a crise financeira global em 2008, a economia mundial continuou a tropeçar em 2015. Segundo o relatório Situação e Perspectivas Económicas Mundiais para 2016 das Nações Unidas, a taxa média de crescimento nas economias desenvolvidas decresceu mais de 54% desde a crise. Estima-se que 44 milhões de pessoas estejam desempregadas nos países desenvolvidos, perto de 12 milhões mais do que em 2007, enquanto a inflação atingiu o seu nível mais baixo desde o início da crise.

O mais preocupante é que as taxas de crescimento dos países avançados também se tornaram mais voláteis. Isto é surpreendente, porque sendo economias desenvolvidas com contas de capital completamente abertas deveriam ter beneficiado do livre fluxo de capital e da partilha internacional do risco, e consequentemente deveriam ter sofrido pouca volatilidade macroeconómica. Além disso, as transferências sociais, incluindo os subsídios de desemprego, deveriam ter permitido que as famílias estabilizassem o seu consumo.

Mas as políticas dominantes durante o período pós-crise – a retracção fiscal e a flexibilização quantitativa (FQ) por parte dos principais bancos centrais – pouco fizeram para estimular o consumo das famílias, o investimento, e o crescimento. Pelo contrário, tenderam a piorar as coisas.

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