Globe

Quali ostacoli per l’economia mondiale?

NEW YORK – Sette anni dopo lo scoppio della crisi finanziaria globale nel 2008, l'economia mondiale ha continuato a zoppicare nel 2015. Secondo il rapporto delle Nazioni Unite World Economic Situation and Prospects 2016, il tasso medio di crescita nelle economie sviluppate è sceso di oltre il 54% dal momento della crisi. Si stima che circa 44 milioni di persone sono disoccupate nei paesi sviluppati, circa 12 milioni in più rispetto al 2007, mentre l'inflazione ha raggiunto il suo livello più basso dall'inizio della crisi.

Più preoccupante, i tassi di crescita dei paesi avanzati sono diventati più volatili. Ciò è sorprendente, perché, in quanto economie sviluppate con conti capitale completamente aperti, essi dovrebbero aver beneficiato della libera circolazione dei capitali e della condivisione del rischio internazionale - e pertanto dovrebbero aver sperimentato una piccola volatilità macroeconomica. Inoltre, i trasferimenti sociali, comprese le indennità di disoccupazione, avrebbero dovuto consentire alle famiglie di stabilizzare il loro consumo.

Ma le politiche dominanti nel periodo post-crisi - restrizioni di bilancio e allentamento quantitativo (QE) da parte delle principali banche centrali - hanno offerto poco sostegno per stimolare i consumi delle famiglie, gli investimenti e la crescita. Al contrario, essi hanno avuto la tendenza a peggiorare le cose.

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