美元的忧郁

伯克利—如果说特朗普当美国总统的第一年有什么特点的话,那就是充满了惊奇。

我时常“混迹其中”的圈子之一的一大惊奇是美元的弱势。从2017年1月到2018年1月,美元广义有效汇率下跌8%,让很多专家大跌眼镜。我把自己也包括在大跌眼镜的行列(至于我算不算专家,由你决定)。

我预计,减税和利率正常化将让政策组合向宽财政、紧货币变化,而这一组合在里根-沃尔克时代曾推高美元汇率。鼓励美国公司汇回海外利润的税制变化将释放一波资本流入,进一步推高美元。让进口品变得更加昂贵的新关税将促使需求向本国产品倾斜,在接近充分就业的经济状态,这需要抵消效应以使需求重新偏向外国。当然,最合理的抵消效应便来自真实汇率升值,而这只能通过通货膨胀或(也更合理)强势美元实现。

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