The video screen shows the Kinzhal shipborne surface-to-air missile system as Putin delivers an annual address to the Federal Assembly

西方的单边冷战

Mar 20, 2018 Sergei Karaganov

莫斯科—用绝对权威、外交关系委员会（Council on Foreign Relations）主席理查德·哈斯（Richard N. Haass）的话说，英俄关系的日益紧张进一步证明，俄罗斯和西方已经进入了“第二次冷战”。我对此不敢苟同。

诚然，俄美关系，以及今天的俄英关系，比20世纪50年代更加糟糕，发生直接冲突的可能性也比1962年古巴导弹危机以来任何时候都要高。考虑到当今战略核武器和反核武器系统，你无法排除某一方或第三方的的某个行动方可能会发出挑衅令事态升级。

更糟糕的是，由于双方缺乏信任，美国和俄罗斯领导人之间毫无沟通。美国人对俄罗斯的感觉在厌恶水平徘徊，而许多俄罗斯人毫不掩饰对美国人的鄙夷。

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Cold War II Politics
Alexei Nikolsky/TASS via Getty Images

Cold War II

Richard Haass
A quarter-century after the end of the Cold War, the world unexpectedly finds itself in a second one. This state of affairs was anything but inevitable, and it is in neither side's interest to escalate tensions further.
says that Russia and Vladimir Putin bear more blame than the US for today's tense bilateral relationship.

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 10 Comments on this article

suhniy2000 Jun 20, 2018

Unfortunately for Russia, it hasn't collapsed. The West remains as world's major cultural, political, economic and financial centre. Russia's power is incomparable with NATO's military power and influence all around the world. Our banking and financial system is entirely based on Amerian dollar, whose breakdown would definitely affect everyone.
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David Hugh-Jones Mar 29, 2018

People in Salisbury will be skeptical of the idea that Russian interference is a "scarecrow".
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Ronaldas Vaitiekūnas Mar 26, 2018

The danger of nationalism as an ideology is it's "sweetness" for ideology consumers - regular people with limited critical thinking capabilities. It's a fundamental reason why Hitler was so successful to poison masses of free thinking people and Putin regime has not created anything new - they've studied history intently. I'm just shocked how predictable human nature is - doesn't matter that today's sources of information can be easily diversified (Facebook, Twitter, etc.) people are so keen to trust the news that fits their wishes and beliefs, that Putin's regime doesn't need to block internet or alternative TV broadcasting - it's enough to design the news that best fit nationalistic picture of Russia as a great nation and it's done.

Problem with author of this article is that he believes he is independent thinker, but the true is that this article is very much influenced by Putin's nationalistic propaganda (narrative that West is aiming hegemony over Russia and Russia has right to react by suppressing other nations interests). And unfortunately I do not believe in a happy end of this article as it is again built on Putin's narrative that West's hegemony over Russia creates misbalance for peaceful co-egsistence - the true is that Russia has military advantage it built quietly during last 15 years of Putin's ruling over at least Western Europe and it is a source of danger for this ColdWar II to turn HOT.

If we like to save peace, Western Europe should with great emergence restore military balance with Russia and only when done we can count on more constructive bilateral communication with Russia as it is today (authoritarian, corrupt, aggressive). Unfortunately it can not be done by "establishing more diplomatic, legislative, academic, and educational exchanges", because huge masses (as author of this article as well) of Russian population are already poisoned with nationalistic propaganda and West already lost the war for Russians' minds.

Looking back the history, if West will succeed re-establish military balance and escape military conflict, this ColdWord will last decades as todays Russia has adopted some capitalism freedom and it can self-sustain present regime much longer than Soviet Union did.
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Robert Bruce Mar 26, 2018

Of course it is naive to paint all American (Western) intentions as good, and all Russian motivations as evil. It's not hard to do an analysis showing that mis-guided American policies have destabilised the World far more than Russian actions in recent decades, and cost far more innocent lives. Neither must we overlook the terrible evils that were suffered by the Russian people in the 1990s when American advisors helped shape the worst economic reform plan in history. Over a ten year period male life expectancy fell by 7 years, and industrial output fell by 60% (If you don't know about this read the chapter in Joseph Stiglitz book "Globalisation and its Discontents" to see how one of the greatest opportunities in the 20th century was squandered by the Americans and looted by the Russian oligarchs).

These facts explain why it has been easy for Putin, like all populists, to blame the almost never-ending suffering of the Russian people on the West. But this is where the narrative breaks down. Putin is not working for the Russian people, but to consolidate his own hold on power, and maintain the ability for himself, and those he favours, to loot the Russian state. This looted wealth (equivalent to 60% of Russia's GDP according to Zucman) is secretly held offshore in the very Western economies that Putin claims to hate and despise so much.

At the heart of this issue is a failure of trust. Putin says one thing and does another. His rise to power has been built on deception, manipulaton, and exploitation of others. His policies reflect complete disregard for international law, human rights, and national sovereignty. As such he has pursued a path of disengagement and opposition to the major economic powers in the World, and consigned the Russian people to a bleak future. We know the World must achieve a zero carbon economy by 2050, but carbon fuels account for 25% of the Russian economy. Remove this and Russian GDP will fall to around the same level as Indonesia.

The contrast to the economic path of China out of communism could not be more dramatic. China has followed a careful policy of detente and engagement on its own terms with the West. As a result its economic power is growing so rapidly that it will soon surpass Russia in GDP per capita, and by 2050 its GDP is likely to be twice that of the USA in ppp terms. It is these policies of international engagement that will successfully counterbalance American hegemony in the 21st century, not Putin's aggresive ideas of foreign interference.

For now the Russian people remain hoodwinked into believing that Putin is "making Russia great again" and leading Russia in their best interests. Unfortunately they are just as deluded as those who thought Trump cared about ordinary working Americans. The only conclusion we can draw is those who have suffered great injustices are all too ready to believe politicians who tell them what they want to hear.
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Henk Crop Mar 21, 2018

With WW1 came an end to many old Regimes and communism came up as an ideology replacing it. With the revolution of 1917 Russia fell under communist control. It developed into a centrally controlled economy and society with little freedom for the individual citizen. It thereby became isolated from the rest of the World. Around 1998 the Russian system collapsed. Then things began to go wrong. Russia because of it's long isolation had no experience with democracy, individual human rights and market economy.
The West failed then to help Russia and other communist Nations to modernize and but even exploited their weakness at the time.
Putin has done a tremendous job in restoring his vast country.
You can disapprove of the oligarchs, the fake news, espionage, cyberwar, etc .
Shocking is the revengeful poisening of spies. A tradition from the days of the Czars by which Russia hurts its reputation in the world.
The bottom line however is that there are 3 countries / continents in the Northern Hemisphere with an awful lot of weapons and poor communications/relations.
The best way to prevent these weapons from being used is to normalize relations.
Looking at the situation from a strategic point of view it is hard to see why there are material reasons for conflict anyway and why trade is not being developed.
I hope some people with wisdom and a strategic vision get together and put communications/relations on the right track.
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Thomas Lloyd Mar 21, 2018

I had to check my calendar whilst reading this article as I thought that it was April the first.
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David Garland Mar 20, 2018

while it is always lovely to hear one schooled in economics comment on social media, the truth is that no one in the US gave a whit about Russia prior to the hot mess that was the last presidential election.

Except, of course, that shirtless Putin on a horse pic. сексуальный
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Paul Ross Mar 20, 2018

I must have missed where Russia became a beacon of democracy and freedom? When was that again comrade? Before or after his 76.6% winning percentage? A man who promises to poison those who would serve poison, is not looking for peace.

You may be trying to sell the world the Brooklyn Bridge, but were not buying.
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Paul Ross Mar 20, 2018

Except to its tradition lands, aka Crimea, Eastern Ukraine, Baltic States, Belurussia, you know the former Soviet Union. The great Pan-Slavic peoples.
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Paul Daley Mar 20, 2018

It is a bit absurd for Westerners to find a foreign hand behind every surprising political development like Brexit or Donald Trump. On the other hand, we're dealing with new technologies, like the internet, which have vastly outrun traditional political controls. And Russia's own history with its neighbors is anything but reassuring.

But talk -- as here -- about who's rising and who's falling isn't going to get us very far.
We're in a new political and technological era. We need to work out the terms of any nation's interaction with any other, particularly through the internet. Then we can ask whether Russia (or China, or anyone else) merits special treatment.
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西方的单边冷战

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