A trader wearing a 'Dow 25,000' hat Drew Angerer/Getty Images



我们可以通过市盈率,对国家间的差异进行简单的直觉性衡量。我一直主张用约翰·坎贝尔(John Campbell,现在在哈佛大学任教)和我在30年前所开发的经周期调整的市盈率(CAPE)来衡量股市。

CAPE市盈率是用真实(经通胀调整的)股价除以十年真实每股收益平均值。伦敦巴克莱银行(Barclays Bank)计算了26个国家的CAPE市盈率(我为巴克莱的CAPE市盈率相关产品提供顾问)。到12月29日,CAPE市盈率最高的国家是美国。

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