Between the assured re-election of Russia’s autocrat and populist threats on both sides of the Atlantic, there is plenty of reason to worry about the future of democracy in 2024. But the single biggest cause for concern is the US presidential election, which can best be understood with a classic proposition from game theory.
PRINCETON – The year 2023 ended on a sour, cheerless note, with looming elections in 2024 intensifying fears about the fate of democracy and the global order. In addition to the Russian presidential “election” in March, there will be European Parliament elections in June, the US presidential and congressional elections in November, and a general election in the United Kingdom sometime before January 2025. Between the assured re-election of Russia’s autocrat and the possibility of a populist wave on both sides of the Atlantic, there is plenty of reason to worry about the future of democracy.
Of course, populists don’t always win elections, and even if they form the largest party in parliament – as in Poland and the Netherlands this past fall – that doesn’t necessarily mean they will control the government. The scenario that is really keeping people up at night is the fact that Donald Trump has been leading US President Joe Biden in polls in states that Biden must win. But a Trump victory also may be less likely than both Trumpists and anti-Trumpians believe.
Such polls – taken a year ahead of the election – tend to stimulate angst and add to the sense of Trumpian momentum. But if we take a step back, we may find that the picture is more complicated. The current political dynamic in the US is unfolding along the lines of a game of chicken – a classic proposition in game theory. The template comes from James Dean’s “Chicken Run” in the movie Rebel Without a Cause, where two gang leaders race stolen cars toward a cliff to see who veers away from danger first. American democracy, and the world, is being subjected to the same terrifying experience.
PRINCETON – The year 2023 ended on a sour, cheerless note, with looming elections in 2024 intensifying fears about the fate of democracy and the global order. In addition to the Russian presidential “election” in March, there will be European Parliament elections in June, the US presidential and congressional elections in November, and a general election in the United Kingdom sometime before January 2025. Between the assured re-election of Russia’s autocrat and the possibility of a populist wave on both sides of the Atlantic, there is plenty of reason to worry about the future of democracy.
Of course, populists don’t always win elections, and even if they form the largest party in parliament – as in Poland and the Netherlands this past fall – that doesn’t necessarily mean they will control the government. The scenario that is really keeping people up at night is the fact that Donald Trump has been leading US President Joe Biden in polls in states that Biden must win. But a Trump victory also may be less likely than both Trumpists and anti-Trumpians believe.
Such polls – taken a year ahead of the election – tend to stimulate angst and add to the sense of Trumpian momentum. But if we take a step back, we may find that the picture is more complicated. The current political dynamic in the US is unfolding along the lines of a game of chicken – a classic proposition in game theory. The template comes from James Dean’s “Chicken Run” in the movie Rebel Without a Cause, where two gang leaders race stolen cars toward a cliff to see who veers away from danger first. American democracy, and the world, is being subjected to the same terrifying experience.