drew11_Alex Wong_Getty Images_electoral college

Politics

Что собой представляет американская Коллегия выборщиков

Aug 8, 2016 Elizabeth Drew

ВАШИНГТОН – Всякому, кто следит за президентской гонкой в Соединенных Штатах, нужно понимать, что национальные опросы общественного мнения не дают точной картины возможного результата выборов. Из-за того что в Америке существует Коллегия выборщиков, в итоге имеет значение не то, кто получит большинство голосов в национальном масштабе, а кто победит в каких штатах.

Каждому штату дается определенное количество голосов в Коллегии выборщиков, в зависимости от его населения. Кандидат, набравший более 270 голосов выборщиков, становится президентом.

Почти в каждом штате кандидат, за которого проголосовало 50,1% населения, получает 100% голосов выборщиков штата. (Только Мэн и Небраска не следуют правилу «победитель получит все»; они разделяют голоса Коллегии выборщиков по избирательным округам конгресса.) В результате голоса миллионов проголосовавших избирателей не учитываются. Если вы республиканец из штата Нью-Йорк или Калифорния, где преобладают демократы, или демократ из непоколебимо республиканских Вайоминга или Миссисипи, можете не надеяться, что ваш голос повлияет на исход президентских выборов.

To continue reading, register now.

Subscribe now for unlimited access to everything PS has to offer.

As a registered user, you can enjoy more PS content every month – for free.

Already have an account? Log in

Subscribe to PS Digital

Access every new PS commentary, our entire On Point suite of subscriber-exclusive content – including Longer Reads, Insider Interviews, Big Picture/Big Question, and Say More – and the full PS archive.

Subscribe Now

new comment has been posted. new comments have been posted.

0 Comments on this paragraph, 13 Comments on this article

Alan Hawkes Aug 15, 2016

"They were suspicious of the rabble – the public – having its way on the basis of misinformation or a lack of understanding of the issues. The United Kingdom’s vote in June to leave the European Union – against the advice of experts and allies – appears to validate this concern." So, first you suggest that UK voters are a 'rabble', and then ignore the fact that constitutional issues may be a proper issue on which voters are consulted.
As to the experts, these tended to be the same experts who warned of disaster if we did not adopt the Euro, so not surprisingly they got short shrift. As to the allies: the simple response is we don't send our Prime Minister to tell you how to run your country, so please tell your President to wait until we ask for his advice.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
Kevin O'Neill Aug 14, 2016

If the House were to vote - does the winner need a majority or simply a plurality of votes cast? i.e with 4 candidates could we have a 'hung' house?
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
M M Aug 11, 2016

The irony of it all is that no one in the media has even questioned the funds and funding of The Clintons and of the Clintons Foundation post and during this Presidential campaign. There must be no place for corruption, money laundering or cronyism in politics, full stop. If this is going to require a Trump to put a stop to it, albeit….
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
Simon Barnard Aug 9, 2016

It makes you wonder...
Democracy: a system of government by the whole population or all the eligible members of a state, typically through elected representatives.
Does the electoral college fall within this definition of democracy?
PS. I'm not conviced that the UK's first by the post system is good example of democracy.
PPS. Is democracy realy a good system? Should we really all be aspiring to it or enforcing it on other countries? Could we all prosper more under a benevolent dictator? Where could we get one?
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
j. von Hettlingen Aug 8, 2016

Elizabeth Drew explains the crucial role America's Electoral College plays in the presidential election, as a president is not chosen directly by the people but by an institution known as the Electoral College, in a manner prescribed by the US constitution and a complex set of state and federal laws. In theory, the College chooses the candidate who wins the most votes nationwide - but not always, what matters is "who wins in which states."
Each state has a number of electors in the College proportionate to its population - the sum of its number of senators (always two) and representatives in the House: in total it has 538 electors. California, the most populous state (0,18% of the US population), has 55 electors, representing only 10.22% of the College total. A few small states like Wyoming and the District of Columbia have only three electors, giving them 0.56% of the College votes. A candidate needs to win 270 electoral votes - half of the total plus one - to win the election. In "almost every state, a candidate who wins 50.1% of the popular vote is awarded 100% of its electoral votes." In all but two states, Maine and Nebraska "don't follow the winner-take-all rule, they divide the Electoral College vote by congressional district."
Basically Americans on election day cast votes for electors - party activists, including friends and allies of the contender - who will support their choice, even though the electors' names are not on the ballot. "As a result, the votes of millions of people who cast their ballot end up not counting," and it at times seems unfair that the winning candidate might get fewer popular votes. Since 1804, four presidents have been elected who did not win the popular vote. In 1824 after four candidates split the Electoral College, the House elected John Quincy Adams even though Andrew Jackson won more popular votes and electoral votes. In 1876 Republican Rutherford B Hayes won with 185 electoral votes, even though Democrat Samuel J Tilden won 264,292 more popular votes. In 1888 Republican Benjamin Harrison elected president with 233 electoral votes, though Democrat Grover Cleveland won 100,456 more votes. In 2000 Republican George W Bush won with 271 electoral votes, though Democrat Al Gore won 540,520 more votes. On December 12 in a "partisan and highly controversial decision" the Supreme Court "voted 5-4 to end the recount in Florida, handing the presidency to Bush."
The Electoral College system is still practised, because it is respected for its historical roots and because it does usually reflect the popular vote (48 out of 52 elections since 1804 produced a popular mandate). It also gives greater weight to smaller states - one of the checks and balances the US constitution values. The College system also means that a candidate needs to get a spread of votes from across the country. And it "has an enormous impact on the actual campaign for the presidency, because it determines where the candidates spend their time and money. Only about ten states are considered 'swing' states that could go for either party; the rest are considered 'safe' states for one party or the other." Part of a presidential candidate's grand strategy requires drawing a map of states the candidate can and must win. Drew suggests Donald Trump may not be able to cross "the threshold of 270 electoral votes" - to win the White House, as he is "widely believed to have more limited options for accumulating" these votes.
The Electoral College system was introduced by America’s founders, who "were aware of the dangers of government by plebiscite." The framers of the constitution in 1787 rejected both the election of the president by Congress and election by direct popular vote. Alexander Hamilton was distrustful of popular democracy, saying people “seldom judge or determine right.” "They were suspicious of the rabble - the public - having its way on the basis of misinformation or a lack of understanding of the issues. The United Kingdom’s vote in June to leave the European Union – against the advice of experts and allies – appears to validate this concern." It also explains why populists reject elitism, mainstream politics and the establishment.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
j. von Hettlingen Aug 8, 2016

Elizabeth Drew explains the crucial role America's Electoral College plays in the presidential election, as a president is not chosen directly by the people but by an institution known as the Electoral College, in a manner prescribed by the US constitution and a complex set of state and federal laws. In theory, the College chooses the candidate who wins the most votes nationwide - but not always, what matters is "who wins in which states."
Each state has a number of electors in the College proportionate to its population - the sum of its number of senators (always two) and representatives in the House: in total it has 538 electors. California, the most populous state (0,18% of the US population), has 55 electors, representing only 10.22% of the College total. A few small states like Wyoming and the District of Columbia have only three electors, giving them 0.56% of the College votes. A candidate needs to win 270 electoral votes - half of the total plus one - to win the election. In "almost every state, a candidate who wins 50.1% of the popular vote is awarded 100% of its electoral votes." In all but two states, Maine and Nebraska "don't follow the winner-take-all rule, they divide the Electoral College vote by congressional district."
Basically Americans on election day cast votes for electors - party activists, including friends and allies of the contender - who will support their choice, even though the electors' names are not on the ballot. "As a result, the votes of millions of people who cast their ballot end up not counting," and it at times seems unfair that the winning candidate might get fewer popular votes. Since 1804, four presidents have been elected who did not win the popular vote. In 1824 after four candidates split the Electoral College, the House elected John Quincy Adams even though Andrew Jackson won more popular votes and electoral votes. In 1876 Republican Rutherford B Hayes won with 185 electoral votes, even though Democrat Samuel J Tilden won 264,292 more popular votes. In 1888 Republican Benjamin Harrison elected president with 233 electoral votes, though Democrat Grover Cleveland won 100,456 more votes. In 2000 Republican George W Bush won with 271 electoral votes, though Democrat Al Gore won 540,520 more votes. On December 12 in a "partisan and highly controversial decision" the Supreme Court "voted 5-4 to end the recount in Florida, handing the presidency to Bush."
The Electoral College system is still practised, because it is respected for its historical roots and because it does usually reflect the popular vote (48 out of 52 elections since 1804 produced a popular mandate). It also gives greater weight to smaller states - one of the checks and balances the US constitution values. The College system also means that a candidate needs to get a spread of votes from across the country. And it "has an enormous impact on the actual campaign for the presidency, because it determines where the candidates spend their time and money. Only about ten states are considered 'swing' states that could go for either party; the rest are considered 'safe' states for one party or the other." Part of a presidential candidate's grand strategy requires drawing a map of states the candidate can and must win. Drew suggests Donald Trump may not be able to cross "the threshold of 270 electoral votes" - to win the White House, as he is "widely believed to have more limited options for accumulating" these votes.
The Electoral College system was introduced by America’s founders, who "were aware of the dangers of government by plebiscite." The framers of the constitution in 1787 rejected both the election of the president by Congress and election by direct popular vote. Alexander Hamilton was distrustful of popular democracy, saying people “seldom judge or determine right.” "They were suspicious of the rabble - the public - having its way on the basis of misinformation or a lack of understanding of the issues. The United Kingdom’s vote in June to leave the European Union – against the advice of experts and allies – appears to validate this concern." It also explains why populists reject elitism, mainstream politics and the establishment.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
to to Aug 8, 2016

Without the National Popular Vote bill in effect, less than a handful of states will continue to dominate and determine the presidential general election.

With the end of the primaries, without the National Popular Vote bill in effect, the political relevance of three-quarters of all Americans is now finished for the presidential election.

Over the last few decades, presidential election outcomes within the majority of states have become more and more predictable.

From 1992- 2012
13 states (with 102 electoral votes) voted Republican every time

19 states (with 242) voted Democratic every time
6 are the among the 11 most populous states, but most are not.
CA - 55, CT -7, DE - 3, DC - 3, HI - 4, IL - 20, MA -11, ME - 4, MD - 10, MI - 16, MN - 10, NJ - 14, NY - 29, OR - 7 , PA -20, RI -4, VT - 3, WA -12, and WI -10

If this 20 year pattern continues, without the National Popular Vote bill in effect,
Democrats only would need a mere 28 electoral votes from other states.
If Republicans lose Florida (29), they would lose.

Some states have not been competitive for more than a half-century and most states now have a degree of partisan imbalance that makes them highly unlikely to be in a swing state position.
• 41 States Won by Same Party, 2000-2012
• 32 States Won by Same Party, 1992-2012
• 13 States Won Only by Republican Party, 1980-2012
• 19 States Won Only by Democratic Party, 1992-2012
• 7 Democratic States Not Swing State since 1988
• 16 GOP States Not Swing State since 1988

The 11 largest states, with a majority of the U.S. population and electoral votes, rarely agree on any political question. In terms of recent presidential elections, the 11 largest states have included five "red states (Texas, Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, and Georgia) and six "blue" states (California, New York, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and New Jersey). The fact is that the big states are just about as closely divided as the rest of the country. For example, among the four largest states, the two largest Republican states (Texas and Florida) generated a total margin of 2.1 million votes for Bush, while the two largest Democratic states generated a total margin of 2.1 million votes for Kerry.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
to to Aug 8, 2016

The presidential election system, using the 48 state winner-take-all method or district winner method of awarding electoral votes used by 2 states, that we have today was not designed, anticipated, or favored by the Founding Fathers. It is the product of decades of change precipitated by the emergence of political parties and enactment by states of winner-take-all or district winner laws, not mentioned, much less endorsed, in the Constitution.

The Electoral College is now the set of 538 dedicated party activists, who vote as rubberstamps for presidential candidates. In the current presidential election system, 48 states award all of their electors to the winners of their state. This is not what the Founding Fathers intended.

The Founding Fathers in the Constitution did not require states to allow their citizens to vote for president, much less award all their electoral votes based upon the vote of their citizens.

In 1789, in the nation's first election, a majority of the states appointed their presidential electors by appointment by the legislature or by the governor and his cabinet, the people had no vote for President in most states, and in them, only men who owned a substantial amount of property could vote, and only three states used the state-by-state winner-take-all method to award electoral votes.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
to to Aug 8, 2016

Each state is awarded a certain number of votes in the Electoral College, depending on the number of U.S. House and Senate members.

In 48 states the candidate who wins a plurality (not necessarily 50.1%) of the popular vote is awarded 100% of its electoral votes.

Maine (since enacting a state law in 1969) and Nebraska (since enacting a state law in 1992) have awarded one electoral vote to the winner of each congressional district, and two electoral votes statewide. Nebraska in 2008, with 1 electoral vote, has been the only state in the past century that has split its electoral votes between presidential candidates from two different parties.

In 2012, 56,256,178 (44%) of the 128,954,498 voters had their vote diverted by the winner-take-all rule to a candidate they opposed (namely, their state’s first-place candidate).

And now votes, beyond the one needed to get the most votes in the state, for winning in a state, are wasted and don't matter to presidential candidates.

A candidate can win a majority of the national popular vote but lose in the Electoral College by multiple scenarios. Because of the state-by-state winner-take-all electoral votes laws (i.e., awarding all of a state’s electoral votes to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in each state) and (not mentioned in the U.S. Constitution, but later enacted by 48 states),in 48 states, a candidate can win the Presidency without winning the most popular votes nationwide. This has occurred in 4 of the nation's 57 (1 in 14 = 7%) presidential elections. The precariousness of the current state-by-state winner-take-all system of awarding electoral votes is highlighted by the fact that a difference of a few thousand voters in one or two states would have elected the second-place candidate in 4 of the 15 presidential elections since World War II. Near misses are now frequently common. There have been 7 consecutive non-landslide presidential elections (1988, 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004, 2008, and 2012). 537 popular votes won Florida and the White House for Bush in 2000 despite Gore's lead of 537,179 (1,000 times more) popular votes nationwide. A difference of 60,000 voters in Ohio in 2004 would have defeated President Bush despite his nationwide lead of over 3 million votes. In 2012, a shift of 214,733 popular votes in four states would have elected Mitt Romney, despite President Obama’s nationwide lead of 4,966,945 votes.

After the 2012 election, Nate Silver calculated that "Mitt Romney may have had to win the national popular vote by three percentage points on Tuesday to be assured of winning the Electoral College."

In Gallup polls since 1944, only about 20% of the public has supported the current system of awarding all of a state's electoral votes to the presidential candidate who receives the most votes in each separate state (with 70% opposed and about 10% undecided).

Most Americans don't ultimately care whether their presidential candidate wins or loses in their state or district . . . they care whether he/she wins the White House. Voters want to know, that even if they were on the losing side, their vote actually was equally counted and mattered to their candidate. Most Americans think it is wrong that the candidate with the most popular votes can lose. We don't allow this in any other election in our representative republic.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
Curtis Carpenter Aug 8, 2016

For an interesting historical perspective that some may enjoy, give a quick read about the election of Thomas Jefferson in 1800 here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1800 . The election went to the House of Representatives, and Jefferson finally won the president's office on the 36th ballot!
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
Steve Hurst Aug 8, 2016

Sorry, who was Trump?
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
TR Barnes Aug 8, 2016

PS By law the House must choose one of the three top electoral college vote winners.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
TR Barnes Aug 8, 2016

Thank you for the analysis.
Here is a scenario that could happen: the Republicans see that Trump is going down in a epic loss--ironically, the electoral college insures he will. They cannot dump Trump, so they have Kasich run as an independent. Trump and Kasich take enough electoral votes that Clinton doesn't get the required 270. The House votes Kasich for president. The Republicans win the presidency.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.

https://prosyn.org/Rt69Ucrru

Что собой представляет американская Коллегия выборщиков

Subscribe to PS Digital

New Comment

Contact us

Handpicked to read next

The Republican Bankruptcy Illusion

Log in/Register

Что собой представляет американская Коллегия выборщиков

Subscribe to PS Digital

Handpicked to read next

Edit Newsletter Preferences

Set up Notification