elections in bulgaria Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

Was Trumps Sieg für Osteuropa bedeutet

WARSCHAU – Die Vorherrschaft des wirtschaftlichen Liberalismus im Westen führt zum Untergang des politischen Liberalismus. Eine wachsende Zahl wichtiger Länder erlebt keine Wahlen mehr, sondern Plebiszite über die liberale Demokratie – Abstimmungen, deren Ergebnisse von den Verlierern der liberalen Demokratie bestimmt werden. In den Vereinigten Staaten stellt Donald Trumps Wahl zum Präsidenten die Strafe für ein Establishment dar, das die Forderungen der Occupy-Wall-Street-Proteste des Jahres 2011 ignorierte.

Die nächste Herausforderung für das Establishment wird darin bestehen, in Italien die Oberhand zu behalten, wo ein Verfassungsreferendum am 4. Dezember über das Schicksal des italienischen Ministerpräsidenten Matteo Renzi entscheiden könnte. Dieses Votum wird das Vorspiel für die französischen Präsidentschaftswahlen im Frühjahr bilden, wo ein Sieg Marine Le Pens vom rechtsextremen Front National beinahe sicher zum endgültigen Zusammenbruch der Europäischen Union, wenn nicht gar des gesamten geopolitischen Westens führen würde. 

Ungeachtet der Ergebnisse dieser Abstimmungen beweisen aber Brexit und Trump, dass die liberale Demokratie als Grundprinzip westlicher Politik ausgedient hat. Und das hat weitreichende Folgen. Wie können „Swing States“ wie Polen zu einer liberalen Demokratie werden, wenn die westliche Bezugsgröße verschwindet? Osteuropa hat noch nie profitiert, wenn sich die politischen Umstände im Westen verschlechterten.

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