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特朗普的大策略?

东京—和人际互动一样,国际关系,不论是经济关系还是政治关系,都是合作与竞争的结合体。“合作”部分让所有参与方受益,不论是通过保持世界和平还是通过自由贸易刺激增长和繁荣实现。“竞争”部分形成严重风险,如经济障碍和战争和环境破坏。那么,为何各国不增加合作?

答案部分源自所谓的囚徒困境。国家可能会认为,通过背叛合作伙伴,可以为自己赢得更好的“交易”。在面临欺 骗的诱惑时,它们会变得担心乃至怀疑它们的合作伙伴——也面临着同样的诱惑——正在背叛它们。结果,它们更容易先发制人背叛伙伴。

博弈论为理性决策者之间的冲突与合作提供数学模型,对于克服囚徒困境,它一般无法给出合意的策略,更不用说解决实际冲突的最优策略了。但是,密歇根大学的罗伯特·艾克赛尔罗德(Robert Axelrod)的工作有望打破这一瓶颈。

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