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Trump, o Dragão e o Minotauro

ATENAS – Se Donald Trump consegue compreende algo, é a importância da falência e da reciclagem financeira. Conhece bem o sucesso através de padrões estratégicos, seguido de remissões de dívidas maciças e da criação de activos a partir de passivos. Mas compreenderá ele e a profunda diferença que existe entre a dívida de um promotor e a dívida de uma grande economia? E será que tem a noção de que a bolha da dívida privada da China é um barril de pólvora sob a economia global? Muito depende do facto de ele compreender isto ou não.

Trump foi eleito numa onda de descontentamento face à colossal má gestão do establishmet no que se refere à expansão anterior a 2008 e à recessão pós-2008. A sua promessa de um estímulo interno e de políticas comerciais proteccionistas para restabelecer o empregos no sector industrial conduziram-no à Casa Branca. O cumprimento destas promessas dependerá da forma como compreende o papel que os EUA desempenhavam nos "bons velhos tempos", o papel que podem desempenhar actualmente e, fundamentalmente, a importância da China.

Antes de 1971, a hegemonia global dos EUA baseava-se no excedente da balança de transacções correntes dos EUA com o restante mundo capitalista, que os EUA ajudaram a estabilizar através da reciclagem de parte do seu excedente para a Europa e o Japão. Isto sustentou a estabilidade económica e um acentuado declínio da desigualdade em toda a parte. No entanto, quando os EUA entraram em situação de défice, esse sistema global deixou de funcionar, dando origem ao que designei como a fase do Minotauro Global.

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