Wall Street bull Spencer Platt/Getty Images

La farce de la croissance de Trump

WASHINGTON, DC – Les fonctionnaires de l'administration du président Donald Trump parlent souvent de la nécessité de ramener la croissance économique annuelle des États-Unis au-dessus de 3%. Mais ils font plus que simplement en parler; le budget qu'ils proposent suppose effectivement qu'ils y parviendront.

S’ils réussissent, cela représenterait une amélioration significative par rapport aux performances récentes de l'économie américaine, qui a atteint moins de 2% de croissance annuelle en moyenne depuis 2000. Et, bien qu'une augmentation à 3% puisse sembler faible, elle ferait une différence énorme en termes d'emploi et de salaires.

Malheureusement, abandonnée à elle-même, l'économie continuera très probablement à piétiner. Et les politiques que le Parti républicain de Trump a proposé – concernant les soins de santé, la taxation et la déréglementation – ne changeront pas grand-chose. L'hypothèse d'une croissance plus forte relève davantage d'un écran de fumée comptable permettant des réductions d'impôt que toute autre chose. Si les responsables de l'administration reconnaissaient qu'un taux annuel de 3% n'est pas possible, ils devraient se rendre à l’évidence que leurs prévisions de recettes fiscales sont trop élevées, et que les réductions d'impôt qu’ils proposent, si elles sont adoptées, augmenteraient considérablement le déficit budgétaire et la dette nationale.

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