solar panels Kevin Frayer/Getty Images

Siempre necesitaremos París

LONDRES – La decisión del presidente Donald Trump de retirar a Estados Unidos del acuerdo climático de París es profundamente lamentable, y se basa en un análisis económico errado. Pero no logrará detener la marcha hacia una economía con baja emisión de carbono: se opondrán a ello un progreso tecnológico imparable y la acción decidida de otros países, empresas de todo el mundo y numerosas ciudades y estados norteamericanos.

Trump aseguró que el acuerdo de París costaría a Estados Unidos tres billones de dólares de su PIB de aquí a 2040. Pero el estudio que citó parte de un supuesto absurdo: que la reducción de las emisiones estadounidenses no iría acompañada de acciones similares de otros países. Y además comete el error crucial de ignorar que hay una revolución tecnológica que está transformando la economía de la generación eléctrica.

En sólo siete años, el costo de la energía eólica se redujo más del 65%, y el de la solar casi un 90%. En lugares favorables, empresas de energía solar y eólica terrestre están ganando licitaciones con precios tan bajos como 0,03 dólares por kilovatio‑hora (kWh), que les permiten competir fácilmente con la producción mediante quema de combustibles fósiles. Y el costo de la producción marina de energía eólica también se está reduciendo más rápido de lo que se preveía.

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