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An Indian worker conducts checks in the assembly area of the power electronics factory

Economics

让未来符合我们的需要

Sep 29, 2017 Ricardo Hausmann

剑桥——未来的工作将为我们带来什么，而我们又将如何去迎接它？迄今为止这样的辩论集中在发达国家，但这个问题将会影响到世界各国。

在悲观主义者看来，包扩3D打印、人工智能和物联网在内的这些所谓通用技术的引入将会威胁到劳动力需求，如果没有建立起普遍基本收入等保障社会团结的新形式，未来就很难避免陷入到普遍贫困之中。而在乐观主义者看来，最新技术发展像其他推动人类不断前进的因素一样，有可能实现前所未有的繁荣。

现在断言哪一方的观点正确恐怕还为时尚早。物理学家尼尔斯·博尔曾经说过，“做预测的难度很大，尤其是预测未来。”具体到世界经济这样的复杂系统，了解过去——如过去20年来几乎所有国家制造业就业人数的大幅下滑——本身已经具有很大难度。可能决定最终结局的因果关系或许才是比较容易确定的因素。

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 2 Comments on this article

Prashant Kotak Oct 2, 2017

"Most countries’ future is more likely to be bright if they focus on ensuring that they can master every new technology and exploit every new opportunity that comes their way."

An optimistic stance with absolutely zero grip on reality. I find it scarcely believable that someone with the credentials of a top administrator and academic can come out with something this vacuous.

To ask all countries to master "every new technology and exploit every new opportunity" is hokum. With Information technologies specifically, only about three dozen tech leviathans own that high-end tech that drives the world (most in the US, a handful in Asia, perhaps only SAP in Europe), and they ain't going to just hand it over, not to other companies or even governments. The only way for any nation to get there is to *innovate* that same high-end tech themselves. And they can't, for exactly the same reason that only a handful of countries in the world have rocket science and nukes: if it was so easy to do this, than all countries in the world would already have rocket science and nukes, but it isn't, and they don't. With IT, if replicating that high-end tech was so easy, then there would a already be a hell of a lot more competitors to Alphabet, MSTF, FB et al - but it isn't, and there aren't.

In fact, come to think on it, what prevented you from developing rocket science in Venezuela when you were in in positions of power if "mastering every new technology and exploit every new opportunity" is so easy?
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Steve Hurst Oct 2, 2017

Very weak argument. Agri labour found a new sector - consumer product production. There is no new sector on the horizon and AI will replace human labour in many tasks. Social mobility is low, inequality is rising, real wages are declining, productivity is declining. Demographics in the West are ageing reducing economic activity and increasing welfare requirements. Elsewhere populations are expanding exponentially. Resources are finite. It's not hard to see where the future is heading in part at least. The article closing paragraph is pulp fiction. The West which is relatively wealthy is incapable of meeting this criteria by societal measurements, why expect developing countries under stress to do it. It's just so much pulp fiction
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