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欧洲回归危机?

布鲁塞尔—四个月前,马克龙当选为法国总统时,欧盟好像终于要迈向平静期了。但你在巴塞罗那的街头看不到丝毫平静,在这里,支持加泰罗尼亚独立(独立公投被政府力量残酷镇压)的示威遇上了同样强有力的反独立游行。

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随着西班牙内部冲突的升级,欧洲回归危机看上去似乎已是无可避免了。但西班牙所发生的事情,其实正表明欧洲经济复苏正在加强,同时也突出地表明了欧盟成就的极限。

欧盟经济复苏的强度,从金融市场对加泰罗尼亚骚乱景象没有产生任何反应便可一窥端倪。如果类似的情景在几年前出现的话,西班牙政府债券必定会发生挤兑,西班牙股市也将崩盘。但如今,市场对西班牙巨大的政治不确定性处之泰然。

这场信心投票建立在坚实的基础之上。整个欧元区经济增长率虽然说不上亮眼,但也颇为得体。而西班牙经济增长一直快于欧元区平均水平,外部账户也保持着少量盈余。

这意味着西班牙复苏是建立在供给增加的基础上,而不像危机前的建筑业繁荣那样,是建立在需求增加的基础上。此外,欧元机构的存在能够解决银行或国家所面临的短暂的融资困难。如此,西班牙深刻的政治危机并未伴随危险的金融市场剧震的原因便也水落石出了。

但加泰罗尼亚危机也暴露出欧盟一体化模式的局限性,它们植根于一个事实,即欧盟说到底系以民族国家为基础。这一模式不可说是政府间模式。相反,它基于间接的执行:欧盟的几乎一切事务和决定,都由国家政府和机关做出。

这一区别在货币政策领域表现最为突出,决策机制毫无疑问不是政府间性质:欧洲央行理事会按照简单多数原则行事。

但执行机制显然是间接的:决定做出后,由国家央行负责落实——这一方法可能带来重要影响。比如,最近几年中名义上由欧洲央行所做出的大规模债券购买操作,其实主要由国家央行具体处理,它们都买了本国政府的债券。

卢森堡欧洲法院——另一个具有关键重要性的共同机构——也依赖于非政府间性质的决策机制。但它的法官由国家政府提名,并由国家法院和政府执行其裁决。

与美国的对比彰显出这一方针的弱点。美联储也是地区结构,每个地区联储银行覆盖几个州,并与所有州政府或机构没有关联。类似地,美国最高法院法官也是由联邦机构而非州政府提名(参议院投票接受或否决总统提出的人选)。

对欧盟来说,依靠成员国构建共同机构或许是开启一体化过程的唯一办法,因为其成员国充满了深度互不信任,彼此之间打了无数场残酷的战争。但一个依赖民族国家的联盟——不仅在执行方面,在合法性方面也是如此——最多只能像个体成员国那样运行。但如今,随着大部分成员国深受内斗困扰,这一模式也已经抵达了极限。

在希腊,孱弱的行政和司法体系妨碍了经济复苏。在波兰和匈牙利,“反自由”政府正在破坏司法独立。而在西班牙,政治制度似乎无力解决志在赢得更大自决权的加泰罗尼亚地区政府,和认定即使是考虑这个问题也是对宪法制度的破坏的马德里中央政府之间的冲突。

即便是德国,也面临着内部政治挑战。总理默克尔在最近的联邦选举中损失了约五分之一支持者,她不得不考虑在自己的第四个任期中——有可能也是最后一个——与三个难以控制的其他政党结成执政联盟。至于意大利,民调表明大部分选民现在支持民粹主义和/或疑欧派政党。

铁杆疑欧派政党似乎在所有国家都不足以赢得权力,但这些政治变化对欧洲一体化十分不利。欧盟很少面临完全的敌意。相反,如今它面临的是“妨碍性冷漠”(obstructionist indifference),许多成员国越来越专注于内部挑战,使欧洲一体化在欧洲大部分国家沦为二等事项。

仍希望推动一体化的欧盟领导人,不可指望金融危机期间所提出的没有第二个选择的观点。一体化的五年的放任共识(permissive consensus)早已是明日黄花。要想进一步迈向“日益紧密的联盟”,欧洲领导人必须找到新的模式克服欧洲公民的日益深化的冷漠。

http://prosyn.org/zfvLonI/zh;

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