People sit in the sun outside the the Royal Exchange in the City of London Jack Taylor/Getty Images

要管理预期,央行需要精通社交媒体之道

伦敦—随着全球经济增长的起势,国际货币基金组织(IMF)报告所有G20国家都已经进入扩张阶段,我们也终于正在进入利率和货币政策正常化的过程。这一转变等待了很久,2008年,很少有人预见到当年爆发的金融危机的影响会持续如此长时间。

平心而论,政策正常化的节奏,不同地区各有不同。目前最领先的是美联储,它已经两次上调利率,而在欧洲和日本,正常化更多只是预期,而不是现实。但总体方向的变化是明确的。

在美联储的《国会货币政策半年报》(Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress)中,美联储主席耶伦(Janet Yellen)预测“联邦基金利率将逐渐上升”。与此同时,美联储已经减少了其美国国债和按揭债券的持有量。换句话说,所谓的量化宽松(QE)在美国正在被QT(量化紧缩)取代。

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