Fayez Nureldine/AFP/Getty Images

Léčba Saúdské Arábie šokem

BEJRÚT – Saúdská Arábie už dlouho spoléhá na ropu jako palivo tamního hospodářského růstu a rozvoje. Loni ropa tvořila asi tři čtvrtiny celkových příjmů království z exportu a zhruba 90 % vládních příjmů. Zhroucení cen ropy v poslední době však zdůrazňuje, co mělo být jasné už dlouho: Saúdská Arábie, stejně jako ostatní blízkovýchodní státy obdařené ropou a plynem, potřebuje rozmanitější rozvojový model.

Od poloviny roku 2014, kdy ceny ropy začaly klesat, zaznamenala Saúdská Arábie strmý sestup růstu HDP, jakož i slabší růst likvidity a úvěrů. Přebytky ve fiskální oblasti a na běžném účtu přešly ve schodky. Letos se očekává, že tyto schodky dosáhnou 13 %, respektive 6,4 % HDP.

Navíc se snížilo reálné národní bohatství království, vzdor dřívějšímu růstu. Ropné příjmy se, podobně jako jinde v regionu, netransformovaly účinně v lidský kapitál, infrastrukturu a inovační schopnosti potřebné k tvorbě růstu produktivity a diverzifikaci ekonomické aktivity. Kromě přizpůsobení se „novému normálu“ cen ropy tedy Saúdská Arábie musí vypracovat radikálně nový hospodářský model, který bude řešit strukturální překážky produktivity a růstu.

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