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沙特阿拉伯的休克疗法

贝鲁特——沙特阿拉伯长期以来依赖石油资源来推动国内经济增长和发展。去年,石油占王国出口总收入的3/4和大约90%的政府收入。但近期油价崩盘再次凸显了长期以来已经非常明确的事实:沙特阿拉伯像中东其他石油天然气富集的国家一样,需要更加多样化的发展模式。

从2014年中石油价格开始下降后,沙特阿拉伯经历了GDP增长急剧下滑、以及流动性及信贷增长下降的阶段。财政和经常账户盈余转变为赤字。今年,这两项赤字 预计分别将达到GDP的13%和6.4%。

此外,尽管有过去的经济增长,但王国真实的国民财富仍呈下降之势。石油收入像该地区其他国家一样,并未被有效地转化为人力资本、基础设施和推动生产力增长及多样化经济行为所需的创新能力。因此,除适应油价“新常态”外,沙特阿拉伯必须设计一套能扫除生产力和经济增长结构性障碍的全新经济模式。

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