Moscow Marco Bicci/EyeEm

Disuasión mutua asegurada

MOSCÚ – La degradación de la gobernancia al interior del sistema internacional es un tema candente hoy en día -y con motivos suficientes-. Los pilares del orden mundial basado en reglas se están desmoronando y las normas básicas de comportamiento y decencia internacional están en decadencia. Casi por definición, parecemos estar viviendo en un tipo de mundo peligroso -inclusive de pre-guerra.

Las relaciones entre Rusia y la Unión Europea, y con Estados Unidos, el aliado cercano de la UE, son cada vez más frágiles. Ha habido un esfuerzo por lidiar con una dinámica de poder cambiante en Europa al repararse la división político-militar entre la OTAN y Rusia -esta vez, unos 965 kilómetros al este de donde estaba durante la Guerra Fría-. Pero esa estrategia ha creado nuevos peligros, particularmente en vista de la propia fragilidad de la UE, y es poco probable que resulte exitosa.

En términos más generales, el orden mundial unipolar, con Estados Unidos como poder hegemónico, se está desvaneciendo. Por supuesto, ese orden distaba de ser perfecto. Por el contrario, fue una causa de desorden de gran escala, en particular a través del respaldo por parte de Estados Unidos del cambio de régimen en países cercanos y lejanos. El caos creciente en Oriente Medio ejemplifica los defectos de esta estrategia. 

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