Levnou ropou ke změně

WASHINGTON, DC – Nedávný pokles cen ropy má pravděpodobně na globální ekonomiku významný a převážně pozitivní dopad – ještě větší, než si většina pozorovatelů uvědomuje. Pokud dnes vlády využijí nižších cen ropy k zavedení klíčových reforem energetické politiky, pak přínos snížených cen může do budoucna zlepšit strukturální rysy jejich ekonomik.

Stěžejním důvodem, proč byl dopad poklesu cen doposud podceňován, je skutečnost, že nikdo neví, jak dlouho tento pokles potrvá. A minulé cenové pohyby samozřejmě nemohou být v tomto ohledu spolehlivým vodítkem. Když se ceny propadly v roce 2008, vystřelily pak vzhůru téměř rychleji, než experti stačili vyhrknout slova „nová norma“; po poklesu v letech 1986-1987 naopak ceny setrvaly nízko patnáct let.

Tentokrát bude cenovou trajektorii pravděpodobně určovat nový hráč na energetickém poli: břidlicová ropa. Marginální náklady na těžbu břidlicové ropy (tedy cena za pokračující čerpání z již existujícího vrtu) se pohybují od 55 do 70 dolarů za barel. Přidejme k tomu pětidolarovou ziskovou marži a nabídková křivka ropy vytvoří dlouhý a téměř vodorovný úsek pohybující se v pásmu zhruba 60-75 dolarů za barel. Bez ohledu na poptávku to bude také přirozený odrazový můstek pro cenu ropy – nazývejme ho „břidlicovým šelfem“ –, který bude tuto funkci pravděpodobně plnit dlouho.

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