Anniversary of Hiroshima and Nagasaki Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

El nuevo peligro nuclear

BERLÍN – Yo nací en 1948, y el riesgo de una Tercera Guerra Mundial con armas nucleares fue parte muy real de mi niñez. Esa amenaza (o al menos, la amenaza de destrucción total de Alemania del este y del oeste) duró hasta el final de la Guerra Fría y el derrumbe de la Unión Soviética.

Desde entonces, el riesgo de que las superpotencias nucleares iniciaran un Armagedón se redujo sustancialmente, aunque no haya desaparecido del todo. Hoy, el mayor riesgo es que cada vez más países pequeños gobernados por regímenes inestables o dictatoriales intenten conseguir armas nucleares, como medio de garantizarse la supervivencia, promover intereses geopolíticos locales o regionales, o incluso llevar adelante planes expansionistas.

En este nuevo entorno, la “racionalidad disuasoria” que obraba entre Estados Unidos y la Unión Soviética durante la Guerra Fría se debilitó. Ahora, si la proliferación nuclear aumenta, es probable que el umbral para el uso de armas nucleares disminuya.

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