Kim Won-Jin/AFP/Getty Images

In Nordkorea läuft die Zeit davon

NEW YORK – Es gibt einen wachsenden Konsens, dass die erste echte Krise der Präsidentschaft Donald Trumps Nordkorea betreffen könnte – konkreter, Nordkoreas Fähigkeit zur Bestückung einer oder mehrerer ballistischer Raketen mit der Reichweite und Zielgenauigkeit, um die kontinentalen USA zu erreichen, mit nuklearen Gefechtsköpfen. Eine Krise könnte auch aus anderen Faktoren herrühren: einer großen Zunahme der Zahl von Nordkorea produzierter nuklearer Gefechtsköpfe, Beweisen, dass das Land Nuklearmaterialien an Terroristengruppen verkauft, oder einem Einsatz seiner konventionellen Streitkräfte gegen Südkorea oder die dort stationierten US-Truppen.

Es gibt keine Zeit zu verlieren: Jede dieser Entwicklungen könnte sich innerhalb von Monaten oder höchstens Jahren ereignen. Strategische Geduld – der Ansatz gegenüber Nordkorea, der seit Anfang der 1990er Jahre die Politik aufeinander folgender US-Regierungen bestimmt hat – führt jetzt nicht mehr weiter.

Eine Option wäre es, die anhaltende Zunahme der Menge und Qualität der nordkoreanischen Nuklearwaffen- und Raketenbestände schlicht als unvermeidlich zu akzeptieren. Die USA, Südkorea und Japan müssten dann auf eine Kombination aus Raketenabwehr und Abschreckung zurückgreifen.

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