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¿La nueva esperanza de Europa?

BRUSELAS – La perspectiva de que el centrista y pro-europeo Emmanuel Macron se convirtiera en el próximo presidente francés ha alimentado la esperanza de que un renovado liderazgo franco-alemán de la Unión Europea se asome en el horizonte. Después de las elecciones generales de Alemania en septiembre, es de esperar, una UE más estable podría comenzar a avanzar de manera más acelerada hacia la unidad y la integración.

A tal efecto, reformar la eurozona parece un primer paso obvio -un paso que el propio Macron plantea a menudo-. Pero esto podría resultar mucho más difícil de lo previsto. En primer lugar, existen profundas diferencias entre las filosofías económicas de los responsables de las políticas en Francia y Alemania.

Como explican Markus K. Brunnermeier, Harold James y Jean-Pierre Landau, Alemania se ha convertido en el defensor de un sistema basado en reglas que hace hincapié en mantener los déficits bajos y que generalmente prohíbe rescatar a los deudores. Francia, por el contrario, tiende a respaldar la idea de que el estado debería ser libre de intervenir cuando fuera necesario, incurriendo en un déficit o inclusive ofreciendo un rescate para impedir una crisis. Afortunadamente, el programa de Macron reconoce elementos de la estrategia alemana, como la necesidad de equilibrar el presupuesto en el largo plazo, lo que sugiere que, bajo su liderazgo, un acuerdo franco-alemán podría ser posible.

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