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Neue Hoffnung für Europa ?

BRÜSSEL – Eine Wahl des politisch gemäßigten Europafreunds Emmanuel Macron zum nächsten französischen Präsidenten könnte Hoffnungen wecken, dass sich am Horizont der Europäischen Union eine neue deutsch-französische Führung abzeichnet. Nach den deutschen Bundestagswahlen im September könnte sich eine neue, stabile EU dann schneller in Richtung Einheit und Integration bewegen.

Dazu wird es zunächst nötig sein, die Eurozone zu reformieren – was auch Macron selbst häufig betont. Aber dies könnte schwieriger sein als erwartet. Zunächst einmal gibt es zwischen den wirtschaftlichen Philosophien der französischen und deutschen Politiker erhebliche Unterschiede.

Wie Markus K. Brunnermeier, Harold James und Jean-Pierre Landau betonen, setzt sich Deutschland für ein reguliertes System ein, das niedrige Defizite betont und im Allgemeinen die Rettung von Problemschuldnern verbietet. Frankreich hingegen setzt sich für die Idee ein, der Statt solle die Freiheit haben, bei Bedarf zu intervenieren, ein Defizit einzugehen und sogar Rettungsaktionen durchzuführen, um eine Krise zu verhindern. Glücklicherweise berücksichtigt Macrons Programm auch einige Elemente des deutschen Ansatzes – wie die Notwendigkeit eines langfristig ausgeglichenen Haushalts. Dies lässt vermuten, dass unter seiner Führung ein deutsch-französischer Kompromiss möglich wäre.

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