Macron Ludovic Marin/Getty Images

左翼,右翼和马克龙

巴黎—法国总统马克龙曾经被视为典型的中间派,最近也被贴上了右翼政客的标签。毕竟,他取消了财富税,增加了劳动力市场灵活性,削减了住房补贴,并引入了高等教育改革——这些政策都是大部分右翼选民所支持的。但事情并不是那么死板的。

The Year Ahead 2018

The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

Order now

如今,左右分歧在法国仍然十分深刻。传统上,右翼强调自由——打破妨碍个体创造力的壁垒。左翼则专注于平等,追求旨在通过再分配创造公平竞技场的政策。这一分歧在经济和社会政策上尤其尖锐,但也扩展到了其他领域,如教育政策(比如延长教育还是早早地分流)。

但事实上,作为一个国家的法国在根本上具有再分配性质,这在近几十年来缩小了两派之间的分野。与此同时,两大主要阵营内部日益分裂,从而让清楚地区分两大相反角度变得更加困难。

比如,极右翼的国民阵线(National Front)谴责“施舍”(这通常是右翼的主张)而支持国家领导的再分配。但这一左翼式的要求要通过国民阵线的身份政治表达出来,特别是其对移民的强烈反对。换句话说,再分配只适用于“我者”,即“真正的”法国人民。

至于左翼,它并没有支离破碎到原子化的程度。在“执政左翼”及其“激进”同道之间仍有显而易见的区分。但这一分歧即使在曾经占主导地位的社会党中间也存在。

左翼在几乎所有问题上都陷入了深度分歧——欧洲、世俗化、教育、商业,等等——因此,要确定哪些要素构成今天的“左派”政策着实困难。事实上,社会党已经开始用他们不是什么,而不是他们是什么来区分自己,打出了“既不是马克龙,也不是梅朗雄”的口号,其中后者是极左翼的让-卢克·梅朗雄(Jean-Luc Mélenchon)。

但这一区分或许并不像社会党认为的那么有力。毕竟,是他们的中左翼选民让马克龙当选了总统。并且他们知道他们为何而投票:到目前为止,他所实施的每一项政策都是他的竞选纲领中包含的。这表明法国中左翼基本上接受了当前的方针。

平心而论,马克龙的基于激励的经济政策比相当长一段时间以来法国所遇到过的政策都要偏右。而到目前为止,中右翼支持其中的每一项政策。(马克龙选择了大部分中右翼的经济计划,这事实上让中右翼面临的挑战更加复杂,除了用身份政治“出挑”之外几乎别无选择。)

与此同时,马克龙的社会政策目标是形成和以前大致相当的再分配水平。因此,他的方针对左翼的政治模式构成了挑战,但从根本上说属于中左翼政策。

当然,这些政策的效果显现需要时间。但最后的输家不会是穷人;而将是相对较丰裕、此前不需要缴纳财富税的家庭。

取消财富税将惠及整个经济的概念很难论证。收益将“向下渗透”到中低阶层的预期相当可疑。但法国的资本主义从来都非常孱弱,对于这一动作背后的激励驱动逻辑还是可以说出一些门道。在一个如今通过资本而不是债务融资的创新导向的经济,财富税已经成为一个历史包袱,妨碍了法国的工业和企业家精神。

法国模式注重通过转移支付来解决过度不平等的问题,它建立在输家数量相对较小的时候。但输家比例随着后工业经济的兴起而提高,这一模式也已经抵达了极限,再分配规模的日渐膨胀营销到了经济效率。

马克龙试图做的是更新法国经济运行体系,从过去的小修小补方针变化为预防模式,从而更好地解决数字技术、全球化和迅速的创新所产生的挑战。这一方针并没有忽视不平等性,其目标是防止不平等性根深蒂固。传统再分配逻辑将被抛弃,以利于预分配(pre-distributive)方针。

在实践中,这意味着失业不会通过扩大公共部门人手来解决,而是通过强化培训解决,培训的项目要反映企业的真实需要。这意味着解决教育不平等性不但要通过投入更多资源,还要通过跨学科方针实现(要在早期干预以支持最脆弱群体和更大的机构自主性之间取得平衡)。这还意味着医疗体系的质量改善不是通过投入更多的钱来实现,而是通过更加强调预防性治疗来解决。

马克龙对左翼和右翼的融合在如今为存活而挣扎的法国传统政党中间制造了一个生存困境。2019年欧洲议会选举有可能成为某种形式的清算。

但这不是重点。在不平等性深入的时代,法国所面临的首要挑战是将重点从伤害控制转移到伤害预防上来。马克龙的政策需要基于这一目标来进行评估,而不是基于已经不具有重要性的意识形态标签来评估。

http://prosyn.org/pcgCyGe/zh;

Handpicked to read next

  1. Patrick Kovarik/Getty Images

    The Summit of Climate Hopes

    Presidents, prime ministers, and policymakers gather in Paris today for the One Planet Summit. But with no senior US representative attending, is the 2015 Paris climate agreement still viable?

  2. Trump greets his supporters The Washington Post/Getty Images

    Populist Plutocracy and the Future of America

    • In the first year of his presidency, Donald Trump has consistently sold out the blue-collar, socially conservative whites who brought him to power, while pursuing policies to enrich his fellow plutocrats. 

    • Sooner or later, Trump's core supporters will wake up to this fact, so it is worth asking how far he might go to keep them on his side.
  3. Agents are bidding on at the auction of Leonardo da Vinci's 'Salvator Mundi' Eduardo Munoz Alvarez/Getty Images

    The Man Who Didn’t Save the World

    A Saudi prince has been revealed to be the buyer of Leonardo da Vinci's "Salvator Mundi," for which he spent $450.3 million. Had he given the money to the poor, as the subject of the painting instructed another rich man, he could have restored eyesight to nine million people, or enabled 13 million families to grow 50% more food.

  4.  An inside view of the 'AknRobotics' Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

    Two Myths About Automation

    While many people believe that technological progress and job destruction are accelerating dramatically, there is no evidence of either trend. In reality, total factor productivity, the best summary measure of the pace of technical change, has been stagnating since 2005 in the US and across the advanced-country world.

  5. A student shows a combo pictures of three dictators, Austrian born Hitler, Castro and Stalin with Viktor Orban Attila Kisbenedek/Getty Images

    The Hungarian Government’s Failed Campaign of Lies

    The Hungarian government has released the results of its "national consultation" on what it calls the "Soros Plan" to flood the country with Muslim migrants and refugees. But no such plan exists, only a taxpayer-funded propaganda campaign to help a corrupt administration deflect attention from its failure to fulfill Hungarians’ aspirations.

  6. Project Syndicate

    DEBATE: Should the Eurozone Impose Fiscal Union?

    French President Emmanuel Macron wants European leaders to appoint a eurozone finance minister as a way to ensure the single currency's long-term viability. But would it work, and, more fundamentally, is it necessary?

  7. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now