O Oeste sobrecarregado

BERLIM – As consequências caóticas da desintegração gradual da PaxAmericana estão a tornar-se cada vez mais evidentes. Durante sete décadas, os Estados Unidos salvaguardaram um quadro global que, embora imperfeito e sem considerar os erros cometidos pela superpotência, garantiu de um modo geral um nível mínimo de estabilidade. No mínimo, a Pax Americana foi um componente essencial da segurança ocidental. Mas os EUA já não querem ou não conseguem ser o polícia do mundo.

O elevado número de crises e conflitos que o mundo enfrenta actualmente - na Ucrânia, no Iraque, na Síria, em Gaza e na Líbia - está associado à nova posição marcada pelos Estados Unidos. Caso estas situações se viessem a manifestar em outra zona sísmica do mundo político, nomeadamente na Ásia Oriental, o mundo teria de enfrentar uma catástrofe global resultante da sincronicidade de numerosas crises regionais. Seria, obviamente, uma crise que ninguém poderia controlar ou conter.

O mundo bipolar da Guerra Fria passou à história; George W. Bush desperdiçou o breve momento dos Estados Unidos como única verdadeira superpotência. Até ao momento, a globalização económica não deu origem a um enquadramento de governação global. Talvez estejamos no meio de um processo caótico que conduzirá a uma nova ordem internacional - ou, o que é mais provável, estejamos apenas no início de tal processo.

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