Ink-stained fingers in front of a Kurdish flag Safin Hamed/Getty Images

库尔德人的转折

纽约—反馈表明,在伊拉克的大约八百万库尔德人中,大部分人参加了库尔德斯坦地区和其他有大量库尔德人居住的地区的独立公投。更大部分的投票者——据报道高于90%——投了赞成票。进团如此,世界大部分国家对此并不同情,而在当今世界,建国取决于其他国家的承认。那么,现在发生了什么?

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平心而论,不存在,也不应该存在自动的自决权。被几千英里之外的政府所殖民统治,被剥夺许多权利,这样的民族在二战后选择独立是一回事。一个地区脱离一个已经存在的独立国家,这是完全不同的另一回事。频繁发生脱离事件的世界,要比现在状态还要无序。

由此,自然产生了一个问题:在怎样的环境下,我们应该支持领导人和人民离开一个国家,建立一个自己的国家?没有放之四海而皆准的标准,但我可以提出一些应该被采用的标准:

·         有历史能证明相关民族具有明确的集体身份。

·         有令人信服的理由,其人民必须能够证明现状正在造成巨大的政治、人身和经济代价。

·         其人民明确表现出强烈希望获得新的、不同的政治地位。

·         新国家具有自生能力(世界最不需要的就是更多失败之国)。

·         脱离不会破坏被分裂国家的自生能力和邻国的安全。

根据这些标准,库尔德独立是令人信服的。库尔德人有强烈的集体历史和民族身份感,他们在一战后没能实现立国,错不在自身——尽管这一理由的说服力不亚于其他民族建国愿望得到了满足的群体。伊拉克库尔德人饱受萨达姆政权压迫(包括遭到化学武器袭击)。独立的库尔德斯坦拥有能源储备,有潜力实现经济自生。并且失去了库尔德斯坦的伊拉克也仍具备自生能力,其他邻国也是如此。

尽管如此,伊拉克北部库尔德人对拥有自己的国家的渴望遭到了巨大的阻挠。伊拉克中央政府担心失去领土和大量石油储量,强烈反对库尔德人脱离。土耳其、伊朗和叙利亚也反对任何地区的库尔德人独立,担心本国的库尔德少数群体可能被库尔德建国的“病毒”所“传染”,寻求分裂并建立自己的国家或加入从伊拉克裂土而立的库尔德实体。

伊拉克中央政府威胁要关闭进出库尔德地区的空中航线。土耳其威胁要切断库尔德斯坦石油出口所依靠的管道。这些行动的危险之处在于新实体(内陆国)的自生能力将因此被削弱,更不用说爆发军事冲突的风险了。

美国反对库尔德人独立,担心邻国的反对可能进一步让已经混乱不堪的中东需上加霜。但库尔德人满足建国的许多标准、运营着一个具备民主特征的政治制度,并且一直是一个忠诚又有效的反击伊拉克和叙利亚境内伊斯兰国的盟友也是事实。而反自由的土耳其、帝国主义的伊朗、深受伊朗影响的伊拉克,以及自身生存需要依靠伊朗和俄罗斯军事干预的叙利亚的反对更强化了库尔德人建国的地缘政治立场。

美国和欧盟(它们对库尔德人独立的概念反应都相当冷静)的一个选择是支持或参与库尔德斯坦地区政府(KRG)和伊拉克政府在巴格达的谈判。谈判的目标可以是就资源和领土如何分割或共享问题达成妥协。同时,土耳其和KRG的谈判可以解决经济和安全顾虑。

美国和欧盟还应该明确表示,它们对库尔德分离的任何支持,都不构成其他人的先例。世界已经有了190多个国家,建立新国家既不简单,也不直接。所有状况都必须进行评估。群体绝对有权利参与自身未来的决定,但这个决定不能由他们自己来做出。伊拉克库尔德人已经让世界知道了自己想要什么;拒绝认真对待他们的目标既不公平,也不可持续。

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