Comments 1

股市真的变得更加短期了吗？

Feb 21, 2013 Mark Roe

译注：文中的“平均”、“平均值”，原文为average；文中的“均值”，原文为mean。

美国剑桥—在最近的评论文章中，我考察了股票交易加快所造成的越来越大的压力是否让公司管理者更注重季度结果，从而有损于他们长期经营企业的能力。但我指出，来自政府和快速技术变化的压力与来自股票市场交易的压力一样大。比如，如果你身处欧元区，当货币本身也在摇摇欲坠的时候，你如何能够谨慎地做出长期规划？当销售向在线方式发展的时候，实体零售商的视界应该定在多长合适？

时常有人说（就快成为传统智慧了），低成本而轻易的资产组合调整、技术交易策略以及投资者从一个部门转向另一个部门迫使管理者将过多的精力集中在即期财务结果上。而随着交易的加速，这一压力也在增加。但是，即使上市公司的管理者和董事会过多地关注季度结果，即使中位持股时长在近几十年中大大缩短，仍然很难弄清是否是股市交易速度加快让管理者更多地关注季度结果。

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Procyon Mukherjee Feb 22, 2013

Here we are dealing with a number of issues, firstly the measurement paradigm itself, which needs a statistical treatment as distributions are highly skewed (either convex or cancave) and we could make two types of errors. The second and more potent issue is that of the importance of the daily price, rather than the trend, as an unprecedented bout of liquidity poured into stocks makes the speculative component highly vulnerable to daily fluctuations and there is quite of lot of business for the intermediaries therefore to profit from daily movements rather than for any other; it does not matter what the average stock holding days is for the more 'invested' community.

The CEOs on the other hand would continue to be measured on the very current value of the company, in an environment where liquidity is so strong and therefore instant gratification for the investors is fast changing as the new normal rather than allegiance to a line of principles that the vision and the mission of a company charts out to achieve for the long term.
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