站不住脚的反全球变暖技术

发自哥本哈根——我们如今用以解决全球变暖的方法不堪大用。因为这些方法一点也不经济,比如一系列碳排放税就极端昂贵但却收效甚微,这些手段在政治上也不可行,因为有关降低二氧化碳排放的谈判只会制造出越来越多的分歧。而如果以上两点你都不同意的话,那么请注意,当今的解决方案其实在技术上也是站不住脚的。

许多国家正在大张旗鼓地制定碳减排目标,以期在今年12月于哥本哈根举行的全球谈判会议之前取代原先的《京都议定书》。想象一下全世界最终就某个充满野心的目标达成了一致。比如说我们决定要在2100年降低3/4的二氧化碳排放量,并同时保持合理的经济增长。于此就存在着技术问题:为了达成这个目标,2100年时非碳源能源使用量将必须增长至一个惊人的水平:2000年全球总能源消耗量的2.5倍。

这些数字是由麦基尔大学经济学家克里斯·格林和伊莎贝尔·加利亚纳计算得出的。她们的研究显示,如果要有效应对全球变暖,那么必须取得一次科技革命式的革新。但我们却并未严肃地对待这个挑战。如果我们继续走现在的路线,那将不会有足够的科技进步来确保非碳源能源在价格和效能上的竞争力相对于化石燃料占得上风。

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