Businesspeople walking Leon Neal/Getty Images

Ontgroeien we het populisme?

CAMBRIDGE – Na negen sombere jaren van het naar beneden bijstellen van hun bbp-verwachtingen schudden macro-economische beleidsmakers over de hele wereld hun hoofd in ongeloof: ondanks een door populisme gestuwde golf van politiek tumult ligt de mondiale groei zowaar op koers om zijn verwachtingen voor 2017 te overtreffen.

En dit betreft niet slechts Amerikaans exceptionalisme. Alhoewel de groei in de VS zeer sterk is overtreft Europa de verwachtingen nog meer. Er is zelfs goed nieuws voor de opkomende markten, die zich nog steeds schrap zetten voor het opdrijven van de rentetarieven door de Amerikaanse Federal Reserve, maar een betere uitgangspositie hebben verworven om zich hieraan aan te passen.

Het grotere verhaal achter deze mondiale reflatie is makkelijk te begrijpen. Diepe systematische crises leiden tot diepe, verlengde recessies. Zoals Carmen Reinhart en ik tien jaar geleden hebben voorspeld (net als vele andere wetenschappers die dit sindsdien met gebruik van onze data onderschreven hebben) zijn perioden van 6 tot 8 jaar van zeer trage groei in zulke omstandigheden totaal niet ongebruikelijk. En het is een feit dat er veel problemen blijven, inclusief zwakke banken in Europa, lokale overheden in China met teveel macht, en nodeloos gecompliceerde financiële regulering in de VS. Desalniettemin zijn de zaden van een duurzame periode van een meer solide groei geplant.

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