Jim Watson/AFP/Getty Images

Keine Munition mehr im Kampf gegen die Rezession?

STANFORD – Die wirtschaftlichen Prognosen für 2017 deuten weiterhin auf eine schwache Weltwirtschaft und unterdurchschnittliches Wachstum für die meisten Länder und Regionen hin. Zu den offensichtlichen Wirtschaftsproblemen gehören die schwachen europäischen Banken, Chinas verzerrter Immobilienmarkt, politische Unsicherheit im Westen, private und öffentliche Schulden in Rekordhöhe (laut dem Internationalen Währungsfonds 225% des BIP) und der Unwille der schwer verschuldeten Länder Griechenland und Portugal, sich an die IWF-Programme zu halten.

Nicht so offensichtlich und daher weniger beachtet sind zusätzliche globale Wirtschaftsrisiken wie eine große Umwälzung des Ölmarkts, die zu steigenden Preisen führen könnte. Ökonomen nennen solche Ereignisse „Schocks“, da sie unerwartet kommen und weitreichende Folgen haben können.

Beispiellose geldpolitische Stimuli und rekordverdächtige Schuldenlasten führen dazu, dass die Regierungen schlecht darauf vorbereitet sind, den nächsten wirtschaftlichen Abschwung zu bewältigen, der nur eine Frage der Zeit ist. Die nächste Rezession wird wahrscheinlich nicht so schlimm wie die letzte, aber die Industrieländer wären viel besser darauf vorbereitet, wenn sie die Geldpolitik schrittweise wieder normalisieren und in der Zwischenzeit ihre Haushalte konsolidieren würden.

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