RMB banknotes in a wallet Zhang Peng/Getty Images

全球经济的三个情景

纽约—在过去几年中,全球经济在加速(增长为正并不断强化)和减速(增长为正但不断弱化)之间来回震荡。在经历了一年多加速后,世界会走向又一次减速,还是能够持续复苏?

最近的增长和股市上升趋势自2016年夏天以来一直保持强劲。尽管在英国退欧公投后略有反复,整个加速过程不仅没有因为特朗普当选美国总统而夭折,还挺过了他所造成的巨大的政策不确定性和地缘政治混乱。面对如此显而易见的恢复力,在近几年中将全球增长描述为“新平庸”(new mediocre)的国际货币基金组织(IMF),最近修正了其世界经济展望

当前增长强势能够在未来几年得到保持吗?还是世界只是在经历一场短暂的周期性上扬,很快就会被新的尾部风险所压制,重蹈最最近几年的覆辙?想想2015年夏和2016年初,投资者担心中国硬着陆、美联储过快退出零政策利率、美国GDP增长停滞和低油价将共同削弱增长。

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