Elderly Germans Sean Gallup/Getty Images

La futura vejez dorada de Alemania

MÚNICH – El récord de inmigración a Alemania de los últimos dos años pone en duda las proyecciones demográficas del país. Pero la rapidez con que Alemania cambió a un perfil más favorable no es motivo para postergar decisiones políticas difíciles sobre los planes de retiro y pensiones.

A comienzos del siglo, pronósticos fiables predecían que la reducción de la inmigración y la baja tasa de natalidad provocarían la pérdida de más de diez millones de habitantes en Alemania de aquí a 2050. Pero hoy, las proyecciones de población se ven mucho mejor. Según los últimos cálculos del gobierno, la población de Alemania puede mantenerse por encima de los 80 millones hasta 2060, y la reducción de la oferta de mano de obra no sería tan drástica como se temía antes.

Las fluctuaciones, grandes e impredecibles, de las cifras de inmigración a Alemania, combinadas con un nivel de emigración estable, venían obligando a corregir considerablemente las proyecciones demográficas.

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