Elderly Germans Sean Gallup/Getty Images

Предстоящий серебряный век Германии

МЮНХЕН – Рекордные уровни миграции в Германию за последние два года поставили под сомнение демографические прогнозы для страны. Однако быстрый переход Германии к более благоприятному демографическому профилю не является причиной для откладывания политически болезненных решений относительно пенсионного возраста и пенсий.

В начале этого столетия прогнозы, которые считались надежными, предсказывали, что к 2050 году Германия потеряет более десяти миллионов жителей в связи со снижением иммиграции и низким уровнем рождаемости. Сегодня демографические прогнозы выглядят куда радужнее. Согласно последним расчетам правительства, население Германии может оставаться на уровне свыше 80 миллионов человек вплоть до 2060 года, а сокращение предложения рабочей силы не будет столь резким, как предсказывалось ранее.

Демографические прогнозы нуждаются в значительных корректировках, поскольку уровень иммиграции в Германию колеблется сильно и непредсказуемо, в отличие от эмиграции из Германии, показатели которой остаются относительно стабильными.

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