Elderly Germans Sean Gallup/Getty Images

德国未来的银白时代

慕尼黑—过去两年创纪录的移民涌入给德国人口预测造成了问题。但德国人口形势的迅速有利化并不是暂停关于退休和养老金的存在很大的政治麻烦的政策决定的理由。

本世纪初,有人预测,由于移民减少和生育率低迷,到2050年德国将失去一千万居民,这一预测被认为相当可靠。如今,人口前景要光明得多。据政府的最新测算,在2060年前德国人口都将保持在8,000万以上,劳动力供给的下降也许并不像此前担忧的那么剧烈。

人口预测需要作出重大调整,因为德国移民数量波动很大且难以预测,这与保持相对稳定的德国移出人口正好相反。

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