Sean Gallup/Getty Images Comments 7 Add to Bookmarks chinese Chinese Arabic English French German Italian Russian Spanish Facebook Twitter Whatsapp 德国未来的银白时代 Apr 25, 2017 Michael Heise 慕尼黑—过去两年创纪录的移民涌入给德国人口预测造成了问题。但德国人口形势的迅速有利化并不是暂停关于退休和养老金的存在很大的政治麻烦的政策决定的理由。本世纪初,有人预测,由于移民减少和生育率低迷,到2050年德国将失去一千万居民,这一预测被认为相当可靠。如今,人口前景要光明得多。据政府的最新测算,在2060年前德国人口都将保持在8,000万以上,劳动力供给的下降也许并不像此前担忧的那么剧烈。人口预测需要作出重大调整,因为德国移民数量波动很大且难以预测,这与保持相对稳定的德国移出人口正好相反。 We hope you're enjoying Project Syndicate. To continue reading, subscribe now. Subscribe Get unlimited access to PS premium content, including in-depth commentaries, book reviews, exclusive interviews, On Point, the Big Picture, the PS Archive, and our annual year-ahead magazine. Already have an account or want to create one? Log in LinkedIn Google+ Bookmark Email Print 7 Facebook Twitter Whatsapp Show More Show More Contact Us http://prosyn.org/jw5IhF7/zh;
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慕尼黑—过去两年创纪录的移民涌入给德国人口预测造成了问题。但德国人口形势的迅速有利化并不是暂停关于退休和养老金的存在很大的政治麻烦的政策决定的理由。
本世纪初,有人预测,由于移民减少和生育率低迷,到2050年德国将失去一千万居民,这一预测被认为相当可靠。如今,人口前景要光明得多。据政府的最新测算,在2060年前德国人口都将保持在8,000万以上,劳动力供给的下降也许并不像此前担忧的那么剧烈。
人口预测需要作出重大调整,因为德国移民数量波动很大且难以预测,这与保持相对稳定的德国移出人口正好相反。
We hope you're enjoying Project Syndicate.
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