Comments 7

德国未来的银白时代

Apr 25, 2017 Michael Heise

慕尼黑—过去两年创纪录的移民涌入给德国人口预测造成了问题。但德国人口形势的迅速有利化并不是暂停关于退休和养老金的存在很大的政治麻烦的政策决定的理由。

本世纪初，有人预测，由于移民减少和生育率低迷，到2050年德国将失去一千万居民，这一预测被认为相当可靠。如今，人口前景要光明得多。据政府的最新测算，在2060年前德国人口都将保持在8,000万以上，劳动力供给的下降也许并不像此前担忧的那么剧烈。

人口预测需要作出重大调整，因为德国移民数量波动很大且难以预测，这与保持相对稳定的德国移出人口正好相反。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

To read this article from our archive, please log in or register now. After entering your email, you'll have access to two free articles every month. For unlimited access to Project Syndicate, subscribe now.

Featured

The End of Scandinavian Non-Alignment

Oct 17, 2018 Carl Bildt
The Martyrdom of Jamal Khashoggi

Oct 15, 2018 Daoud Kuttab
The Brexit Endgame

Oct 16, 2018 Robert Skidelsky
People vs. Money in America’s Midterm Elections

Oct 11, 2018 Joseph E. Stiglitz
The Big Blockchain Lie

Oct 15, 2018 Nouriel Roubini

new comment has been posted. new comments have been posted.

0 Comments on this paragraph, 14 in all 14 Comments on this article

Jonathan Footerman Jul 11, 2017

The Times today 11 July 2017, reported absurdly that UK's growing population would overtake Germany's mid-century due to a projected decline of 15M in the latter. Seeking enlightenment here, I read:
'But, by 2035, ... Germany will have more than 21 million inhabitants over the age of 67; half of them will be over 80 by 2050. '
What does this mean? Perhaps that half the 21M will die before age 80, hardly consistent with a coming silver age. Or it could mean half the general population will be over 80, which at say 35M, means 14M oldies have miraculously appeared since 2035.
Net net: What is this 15M population decline all about? Bad stats?
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
Henk Crop May 7, 2017

For a stable population a birthrate of 2,1 children per woman is required. With the current birthrate of only 1,5 the German population will decrease rapidly.
- Henk Crop May 7, 2017
  
  MM. The EU has rules about how immigrants must be treated. In the Netherlands it works in such a way that after being employed for a number of years an immigrant can obtain citizenship. From then on they have the same rights as any Dutchman including political rights.
  A new reply to this comment has been posted.
- M M May 7, 2017
  
  Henk, you are missing a very important point, a German woman or citizen have got rights, full rights, whilst a migrants has much fewer rights and more importantly no voice to express which guarantees the "Status Quo" and the freedom for the establishment to do whatever they wish.
  A new reply to this comment has been posted.
- Henk Crop May 7, 2017
  
  If you plan on increasing the population by immigrants, there are a few factors to consider. Most immigrants available are from non-western cultures. They find it difficult to adapt, especially if they are moslim. Experience is that the overall cost for one person to become reasonably integrated is Euro 100,000.-. The question is then, would it not be more logical to pay this Euro 100,00.- to a German woman that bears a child ? She will get an economic basis to raise her family on. You also avoid the frictions which often come along with immigration.
  A new reply to this comment has been posted.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
Mauricio Duran-Loriga May 7, 2017

To date, Malthus theories have not yet been vindicated because farming technological progress growth rate has managed to outpace population growth rate (fertility and life expectancy).

But add the coming tsunami of robotisation and Malthus will be revisited with eyes wide open. Not because of population growth rate alone. But because robots will replace mankind as labor force.

Robots are not paid a salary so they can not be taxed. Humans will not work so they will not get a salary, and will not be taxed.
So who will pay and invest for everything?

Add extreme robotisation to the projected population growth and you get a huge population surplus that will have to be addressed as the foremost concern.

When population surplus becomes evident, our nowadays financial debt pandemia will look like an itching pimple.
Millennials you have been warned.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
Henk Crop Apr 27, 2017

"German policymakers should be giving more consideration to the role of domestic requirements in immigration law. " is definitly the most important sentence of this article.
This should be brought to attention of mrs. Merkel and her party.
Admitting immigrants for which there is no employment cost tax money and they have little chance to integrate.
Furthermore, if Germany wants to have a stable population they need a higher birthrate, 1.7 children per woman.
When admitting immigrants they have to consider the cultural consequences.
Most potential immigrants will come from moslim countries. They have trouble integrating beause they have a culture that is incompatible with German values.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
sincerely xd Apr 26, 2017

"nobody foresaw the baby boom of the 1950s and 1960"...and nobody account the Third Word War coming in next months or few years.....
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
M M Apr 25, 2017

Michael, one of the factors that bankrupted Greece was the migration from outside the EU bloc. Analyse the migration data (from outside the EU into Greece) between the period 1998 to 2008 and you will be surprised. Although most of the migrants of that period have left Greece now because of the crisis, they are still claiming certain benefits such as pension (so they are a burden on the economy) and the new wave of migrants are in the majority just transiting in Greece putting other type of economical and social pressures on an already technically bankrupt country. So, the one and only alternative is for the German establishment to play fair, be honest with its citizens, stop the nonsense about austerity and to motivate the Germans to produce (other than disposables), live normal lives and have normal and healthy families.
- M M Apr 26, 2017
  
  Steve, I could not agree more, regrettably there is no way to make the German establishment understand anything, especially the problems that they themselves and their cronies helped create.
  A new reply to this comment has been posted.
- Steve Hurst Apr 26, 2017
  
  M M
  
  There is a direct correlation between affluence and babies QED the West demographic development . The one child policy in China has been subject to efforts to reverse it. Newly affluent - in historical terms - Chinese have not responded by producing more babies. Thus throughout the World you can expect two effects. An ageing demographic due to medical life extending developments and increased nutrition availability; coupled with a a decline in babies. Countries such as those in Africa and Asia who think the answer is increased affluence through industrialization and a doubling of population (which is a transitional effect entirely due to new medical intervention) should take note but appear to show no sign of understanding the time bomb they are creating. If affluence is not forthcoming in African and Asian countries they have a problem because the population has doubled, if it is forthcoming then they have a different problem because an aging demographic will develop. These problems will be passed onto the rest of the World if possible because that is the default behaviour to date.
  
  Migration simply enhances demographic problems for the countries left and long term does not help the new host. Germany cannot answer the demographic problem. Migration creates a subset culture and identity and can cause social problems, affluence for migrants leads to decline in babies as an outcome showing assimilation with the host country (ironically a cultural assimilation demand increasingly made by the host) or for disenfranchised migrants an aversion to the host country and an economic burden to the host. Migration in due course can be expected to simply expand Germany's problems and this article is a nonsense and shows little comprehension of issues. It is this sort of fantasy presented as rational policy that has help destablise the situation
  
  And no I am not against migration as such but awareness of consequences is lacking
  A new reply to this comment has been posted.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
Steve Hurst Apr 25, 2017

Last time I looked Germany needed 8 million young (and skilled) migrants to get a historically normalise distribution and they are way off that. Further Germany is networked into the Eurozone and the demographics South are grim as the young are voting to go elsewhere and that will inevitably put a drag on Germany, apart from anything else demand will ease for German output
- Steve Hurst Apr 26, 2017
  
  sincerely xd
  
  AI and automation simply potentially expands problems arising from the demographic development. The point is migration to reshape the demographic simply can be expected to create a bigger burden in the future. The idea that the demographic can be sorted by a bigger population is garbage because the demographic simply reasserts itself given time because the demographic is culturally driven. It also is essentially self centred proposition as depletion of young from the countries migrated from creates problems there eg Poland and Italy have pending problems to name two. What is needed is a fundamental reappraisal of the way society functions and welfare and social cost expectations. To this can be added the underlying roll-in roll-out fiunding system where contributions are often deployed to pay exisitng costs today not held against future costs. Although it is unstated in the article this relates essentially to the degree of economic activity in society and tax provided elsewhere in the economy by activity. if you decrease the economic activity quotient and increase the inactive quotient whilst increasing the social and welfare costs relating to the inactive quotient the outcomes are obvious but beyond the author it would seem. Buttered bread tends to fall butter side down because the buttered side is heavier. This article is just so much buttered bread
  A new reply to this comment has been posted.
- sincerely xd Apr 26, 2017
  
  "sucess call for (more) sucess", do you dont ear this rule? worker bring fromIndia, Italy, poland, ..etc.....ANY INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRY will be low labor force really..my ONLY questions is: in fhe future really need all work force?? experts points that 50% of the job will be cease to exist in the next 10 years....
  A new reply to this comment has been posted.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.

http://prosyn.org/jw5IhF7/zh;

德国未来的银白时代

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Featured

The End of Scandinavian Non-Alignment

The Martyrdom of Jamal Khashoggi

The Brexit Endgame

People vs. Money in America’s Midterm Elections

The Big Blockchain Lie

New Comment

Email this piece to a friend

Contact us

When Agricultural Workers Go Hungry

Are Britons Really Softening on Immigration?

The High Cost of High Finance

Is Hothouse Earth Avoidable?

The End of Scandinavian Non-Alignment

Will Italy Sink Europe?

PS [In Depth]: Deconstructing the Urbanization Challenge

The “No-Growth” Prescription for Misery

Cookies and Privacy

Log in/Register