Angela Merkel takes her place on the government bench Sean Gallup/Getty Images

欧洲的德国之锚经受考验

柏林—德国联邦大选的结果给欧盟带来了一个重要教训:即使是欧盟稳定基石的德国,也无非对政治分裂和极化免疫。尽管默克尔几乎肯定将得到第四个任期,她的新政府也可能比此前几届弱势得多。

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如今,德国联邦众议院分为六个阵营,而上一次选举只有四个阵营。默克尔的中右翼基督教民主联盟(CDU)获得33%的选票,是自1949年以来的最差表现,但仍足以使其成为议会第一大党。中左翼的社会民主党(SPD,德国第二大政党,也是默克尔上一个任期的执政联盟之一)的得票数也创出了战后新低,只赢得20.5%的选票。

与此同时,民粹主义的德国另类选择党(AfD)赢得12.6%的选票,使这个反欧元、亲俄和顽固仇外的党派成为近60年来第一个跻身德国联邦众议院的极右翼政党。SPD承认失败,宣布将在这个选举周期中成为反对党。

在这样的背景下,德国有可能将由所谓的牙买加联盟(Jamaica coalition)来治理——这个名字来自组成它的三个政党CDU、绿党和自由民主党(FDP)。但这个联盟很难驾驭,因为三党各自的外交政策立场各不相同。

类似地,SPD领导的反对派也将陷入深度分裂。事实上,它在一切问题上都不太可能与同为反对党的AfD形成合作。SPD的价值观和AfD格格不入。AfD 已经宣布其主要目标将是用民粹主义和民族主义大论抨击其他政党。因此,德国议会几十年来庄严分权的规范岌岌可危。

联邦众议院对德国的欧盟政策有着至关重要的影响,因此,目前的局面可能削弱默克尔政府提供欧洲目前所需要的领导力的能力。

平心而论,也有一些好消息。不论优势多么微弱,默克尔的CDU终究取得了胜利,这表明它的基础具备一些连续性要素。默克尔随即决定承担责任组建可行的联合政府,这意味着她维持欧盟的承诺和她对民主和西方价值观的坚决捍卫将继续成为德国的政策制定指南。温和、稳定和国际开放将继续成为德国的口号,不论AfD吐出怎样的脏字。

但在国际挑战的行动方面,德国的伙伴国必须保持耐心。特别是,尽管默克尔预计将与法国的亲欧总统马克龙紧密合作构建英国退欧后的欧盟一体化新模式,但她不会立刻就这样做。

光是组建执政联盟——特别是一个保守派-自由派-绿党联盟——就有可能耗费几个月时间。下个月的下萨克森州选举则是另一个不确定性因素,AfD在该州支持率很高。

即使通过了下萨克森州选举的考验,妥协也未必容易达成。以巴伐利亚州为大本营的基督教社会联盟(CSU,CDU的姊妹党)将在明年秋天面临州选举。在AfD的围追堵截情况下,CSU已经对默克尔的移民政策提出了比较尖锐的批评,在未来几个月中,CSU可能会试图让总理更加偏右。

也许对执政联盟来说,最棘手的问题是欧元区。FDP和绿党对欧元区的立场截然相反,特别是在联合危机管理、共同保险机制和财政工具等问题上。但德国执政联盟难以找到共同点对整个欧盟来说也许是件好事,因为其领导人试图要在成员国政府的责任和货币联盟有效运转所需要的泛欧盟机构之间取得平衡。

对德国执政联盟来说——更不用说法国和德国政府了——为双边和欧洲安全合作构建新框架也许更为容易。民调显示,对恐怖主义和内部安全的担忧要胜过对移民的担忧。如果这些紧迫问题能够在欧盟层面得到解决——就像默克尔在她的胜选词中所说的那样——对欧盟的支持就有可能最终战胜将票投给的AfD的不满的选民。

不管几周后德国出现一个什么政府,其领导人都需要花更大的力气向公民和国际伙伴解释政策选择。在AfD进入联邦众议院的情况下,德国公众将在外交事务上看到更加激进的立场——从欧盟关系到俄罗斯关系都是如此——这是他们几十年来所不曾遇到的。尽管德国中间派仍能够坚持,但其共识即将遭受考验。

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