Economics

Prchavé přínosy pružných směnných kurzů

Dec 4, 2017 Gita Gopinath

CAMBRIDGE – Milton Friedman v roce 1953 publikoval esej s názvem „Důvody pro pružné směnné kurzy“, v němž tvrdí, že jsou pro ekonomiku nárazníkem tlumícím vnitřní a vnější šoky, neboť zajišťují přesně takové změny cen, jichž je zapotřebí k udržení ekonomiky při plné zaměstnanosti. Po téměř půlstoletí plovoucích směnných kurzů je však realita složitější.

Pro pochopení Friedmanovy logiky se zamysleme nad scénářem, při němž ve Spojených státech stoupá produktivita. V efektivním systému by to mělo snižovat cenu amerického zboží oproti zboží odjinud a americký vývoz by vůči dovozu zlevnil. Jak se zhoršují americké směnné relace (poměr vývozních cen k dovozním), poptávka se posouvá k americkému zboží a udržuje ekonomiku při plné zaměstnanosti.

Jsou-li však ceny „zacementované“ (v měně výrobce) nastává potenciální nesnáz. Řekněme, že ceny amerického importu z Japonska jsou zafixované v japonských jenech a ceny amerického exportu do Japonska zase v dolarech. Směnné relace tak zůstanou beze změn, jestliže se nezmění směnný kurz.

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 7 Comments on this article

Terry Ryan Oct 7, 2018

As the author of this article has recently received a major promotion to the IMF, I have been doing some background research on her economics. As a simple proposition I always work on the principle that theories and models must be tested with actual empirics. For the advantages of a floating exchange rate I give the examples of Australia and New Zealand that have had extended periods of freely floating currencies. In that time there have been major economic shocks for their major exports on both the positive and negative sides. In all cases the exchange rate has moved generally in concert with the terms of trade experienced by the countries. These movements take into account both price and quantity shocks (such as drought impacting upon agricultural exports). If she does not like free markets in currencies, what policy proposals is she going to put forward for countries to deal with economic shocks of various kinds. I know this is a very late comment but I think that her ideas need to be challenged.
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douglas ungredda Dec 14, 2017

Exchange rate analysis literature gives exaggerates the importance of trade account flows. The current account is a result of how financial and capital flows happen. These may better help to shed light of these and other phenomena.
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douglas ungredda Dec 14, 2017

One issue is the medium term fiscal impact planning designed by US as well as foreign based multinationals. Financial ad real flows are in parte designed as a result of where and how physical capital as well as intermediate trade flow pricing and market differentiation strategies fit in. Financial and Capital Account gross asset and liability flows partly reflect this. In fact, if one examines the Big Mac Index, a consistent pattern emerges through the many years the Economist has been publishing it, despite the methodological deficiencies that arguably may beset it.
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Jose araujo Dec 11, 2017

If prices are sticky, then markets are not efficient and you cannot apply "rational expectations" to model the world... We also have seen monetary expansion causing exchange rate appreciation, and vice versa...

Anything that assumes full-employment is bound to be wrong... Full employment of what? Time to drop the resource scarcity axiom

Flexible exchange rates are, IMHO, like representative democracy... They are far from being perfect but work much better than any alternative we know,also IMHO, ruppe's and renminbi's are hardly free floating currencies
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Wim Roffel Dec 10, 2017

The effects of the Plaza agreements on Japan's economy are well known. Yet as the author would have it they had no effect.

The weak point of the article is that it studies the first year after a change in the exchange rate. But it is only logical that you can see little effect in such a short period. In many cases there will be contracts that cannot be voided. And when the importer wants to switch to a supplier from another country that will take take time. A new supplier needs to be selected, a contract needs to be negotiated and the new supplier may need to set up production lines that conform to the specifications of the importer. Each of those steps will take time.

It is hard to believe that the author is not aware of such limitations. But that raises the question why the study was done this way anyway. Was there some sponsor with a hidden political agenda?
- Bala Subramanian Dec 11, 2017
  
  All analytical studies have an hidden agenda discerned or not. Correlating causes to effects is unlikely even in this age of super computers. There are infinitely large variables ignored by assumptions ceteris paribus to make any effective policy. Why study at all, then, one might ask. Perhaps, to make believe we are indeed rational.
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- Derryl Hermanutz Dec 11, 2017
  
  The 1985 Plaza Accord was a deliberate effort to devalue the dollar vs the yen; to make Japanese manufactures more expensive in the US, and US exports cheaper in Japan. Between 1985-1987, the dollar declined over 50% against the yen, with catastrophic consequences for the export-driven Japanese economy. Credit expansion that fueled the late-1980s Japanese stock and real estate price bubble replaced export earnings as a source of new money to keep the economy functioning. The dollar price of Toyotas in the US increased, so Americans bought more US-made compact cars (Chevy Vegas, Ford Pintos) and less Toyotas. But US exports to Japan did not significantly increase, due to other factors including Japanese import restrictions, and rejection of US cars and other manufactures as low quality.
  
  Article author Gita wrote, “In fact, we document that global trade prices and volumes are driven by the dollar exchange rate, rather than the exchange rate between the two trading partners’ currencies.”
  
  Wim wrote, “The effects of the Plaza agreements on Japan's economy are well known. Yet as the author would have it they had no effect.”
  
  In the Japan/US case, the dollar exchange rate “was” affected by the Plaza Accord. That is the author’s point: that it is changes in the fx value of the payments currency (the dollar) that affect terms of trade.
  
  And even then, other factors can offset the change in fx rates, so that the direct relationship between a devalued national currency, increased export earnings and decreased import spending, is rendered null. Many nations produce no cars or electronics, for example; and suffer heavy competition for the exports they do produce. So a reduced fx value simply makes those basic imports more expensive, while generating no higher export earnings: which makes the country poorer.
  
  All of the simplistic economic mechanisms depend on ceteris paribus. But all other things never are equal, so implementing the simplistic mechanisms does not produce the expected outcomes. Studying the data - the actual historical effects - shows what actually happens. And in the case of using the fx mechanism, the data shows that it does not produce the expected outcome of reduced imports and increased exports.
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Prchavé přínosy pružných směnných kurzů

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