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地缘政治坟场上的哨声

纽约—随着马克龙在法国总统竞选中击败右翼民粹主义者玛丽娜·勒庞(Marine Le Pen),欧盟和欧元躲过了一颗子弹。但地缘政治风险仍在扩散。西方的反全球化民粹主义逆袭不会因为马克龙的胜利而戛然而止,仍然可能导致保护主义、贸易战和激烈的移民限制。如果分裂的力量保持势头,英国的脱欧可能最终导致欧盟解体——不管有没有马克龙。

与此同时,俄罗斯继续在波罗的海、巴尔干地区、乌克兰和叙利亚横行霸道。中东仍然充斥着几乎失败的国家,如伊拉克、利比亚和黎巴嫩。而沙特阿拉伯和伊朗之间的逊尼派-什叶派代理战争也没有结束迹象。

在亚洲,美国或朝鲜的边缘政策可能演化为朝鲜半岛的军事冲突。中国则继续与其域内邻国存在领土纠纷——其中一些有升级之势。

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