Quand la finance s’enivre, l’économie trinque

NEW YORK – Ces trois derniers mois, le prix des actifs à l’échelle de la planète a nettement rebondi: le cours des actions est monté, dans les économies développées, de plus de 30%, et de bien plus sur la plupart des marchés émergents. Le prix des matières premières – pétrole, sources d’énergie et minéraux – a grimpé; les écarts de crédit (la différence de rendement entre obligations de sociétés et obligations d'État) se sont réduits significativement, les rendements des obligations d'État ayant brutalement augmenté; la volatilité (le “baromètre de la peur”) est retombée; et le dollar s’est affaibli, la demande d’actifs fiables dans cette devise s’étant atténuée.

Mais le rétablissement du prix des actifs repose-t-il sur les fondamentaux de l’économie? Est-il viable? La baisse du cours des actions n’est-elle qu’un répit parmi d’autres ou l’amorce d’une tendance à la hausse?

Même si le contexte économique laisse supposer une plus grande conformité aux fondamentaux –  les risques de dépression ont été réduits, l’espoir d’une sortie de crise  d’ici la fin de l’année est de plus en plus grand, et le sentiment d’insécurité s’apaise – il apparaît également que certains paramètres d’instabilité sont à l’œuvre. De plus, la forte hausse du prix de certains actifs menace la bonne reprise d’une économie globale qui n’a pas encore atteint le fond. En effet, le réajustement à la baisse présente encore de nombreux risques.

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