Amelie Querfurth/AFP/Getty Images

欧元区的改革生死关

发自牛津——随着法国的中间路线改革派新总统上台,同时德国总理默克尔的连任概率日渐增加,是否意味着陷入停滞的欧洲单一货币项目重燃希望?也许如此。但在隔三差五的债务动荡的袭扰之下,我们更有可能面临又一个十年的低速增长。如果能财政和银行业联盟方面迈出坚实的一步,情况可能会有所改善;但在缺乏政策以强化稳定和可持续性的情况下,最终崩溃的可能性却要大得多。

的确,在短期内有很多理由去保持乐观。过去一年来,欧元区一直处于稳健的周期性复苏态势,且表现比其他主要发达经济体更超出预期。请记住:伊曼纽尔·马克龙的当选是一个具有里程碑意义的事件,令法国有机会充分重振其经济,以期能在欧元区治理中成为德国一个全面而对等的合作伙伴。马克龙和他的经济团队都充满了有前景的想法,而他在国民议会中也拥有绝大多数席位来推行这些想法——如果德国人能给予他一些预算赤字的空间来换取改革的话可能会有所帮助。而在西班牙,经济改革也正转化为更强势的长期增长。

但整体来看就不甚乐观。在经历了史上最严重的衰退后,希腊经济的增长仍然停止,尽管那些指责在德国紧缩政策中的人显然没有看到下列数据:在左倾美国经济学家的鼓动下,希腊错过了或许是现代史上交换条件最轻柔的援助计划。意大利比希腊好得多,但这只是一个言不由衷的赞美;实际收入事实上比10年前更低(但鉴于该国的地下经济规模极大,也很难确定)。对于南欧整体来,单一货币已被证明是一个金色的牢笼,一方面执行更为严苛的财政和货币政策,另一方面又剥夺了汇率这个抵受意外冲击的重要缓冲工具。

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