Euro Notes Jim Dyson/Getty Images

Se debe tomar en serio el crecimiento de la eurozona

LONDRES – He estado fuera del mundo de los pronósticos económicos y las finanzas internacionales económicas durante más de cuatro años, pero gran parte de lo que aprendí durante mis 30 años trabajando a tiempo completo en ese campo aún influye la forma cómo veo el mundo. Una lección aprendida es medir el desempeño económico y financiero de una entidad según la forma como se compara con el potencial subyacente de dicha entidad y con la valoración de mercado de su desempeño. La aplicación de este enfoque a las principales economías da lugar a algunas puntualizaciones – y posibilidades – sorprendentes.

Para empezar, contrariamente a la creencia popular, el crecimiento mundial no ha sido especialmente decepcionante hasta ahora en esta década. Desde el año 2010 al 2016, la producción mundial aumentó a una tasa anual promedio del 3,4%, según el Fondo Monetario Internacional. Puede que esta tasa sea inferior al promedio del período 2000-2010, pero es más alta que la tasa de crecimiento en las décadas de los ochenta y los noventa – décadas que no suelen considerarse como económicamente decepcionantes.

Una mirada más detallada al desempeño de determinados países ofrece mayor información. A pesar de atravesar por traumas políticos significativos, Estados Unidos y el Reino Unido se han desempeñado como se esperaba. China, India y Japón también han crecido en niveles cercanos a su potencial. Como evento raro se debe puntualizar que ninguna de las principales economías ha superado drásticamente su potencial.

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