Euro Notes Jim Dyson/Getty Images

Отнестись серьезно к росту в еврозоне

ЛОНДОН – Я уже больше четырех лет не работаю в сфере финансов и экономического прогнозирования, но многое из того, чему я научился, в течение 30 лет занимаясь только этим, по-прежнему влияет на мое мировоззрение. Один из уроков состоял в том, что экономическую и финансовую эффективность компании оценивают в сравнении как с ее исходным потенциалом, так и с результативностью ее деятельности на рынке. Применение такого подхода к экономике крупных стран приводит к некоторым неожиданным наблюдениям – и указывает на определенные возможности.

Начнем с того, что, вопреки распространенному мнению, в этом десятилетии с ростом мировой экономики пока что дела обстоят не так плохо. По данным Международного валютного фонда, с 2010 по 2016 год объем мирового производства увеличивался в среднем на 3,4% в год. Это, возможно, и ниже, чем в среднем за период 2000-2010 гг., но выше, чем темпы роста в 1980-х и 1990-х годах – а эти десятилетия обычно не считаются экономически провальными.

Информация по отдельным странам позволяет понять еще кое-что. Несмотря на значительные политические травмы, Соединенные Штаты и Великобритания оправдали ожидания. В Китае, Индии и Японии темпы роста также примерно соответствовали потенциалу. За исключением редких случаев, ни одна крупная экономика особо не превысила свой потенциал.

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