Euro Notes Jim Dyson/Getty Images

Prendere sul serio la crescita dell'Eurozona

LONDRA – Sono stato lontano dal mondo delle previsioni economiche e finanziarie internazionali per oltre quattro anni, ma molto di quello che ho imparato durante i miei 30 anni di esperienza sul campo ha ancora una certa influenza sulla mia visione del mondo. Una delle lezioni che ho imparato è stata quella di misurare la performance economica e finanziaria di una entità dal modo in cui la si può paragonare sia al suo potenziale sottostante, che alla valutazione di mercato della sua performance. Applicare questo approccio alle economie principali solleva alcune sorprendenti osservazioni– e possibilità.

Tanto per cominciare, contrariamente alle credenze popolari, la crescita mondiale non è stata così deludente in questo decennio. Dal 2010 al 2016, la produzione globale è salita a un tasso annuale medio del 3,4%, secondo quanto affermato dal Fondo Monetario Internazionale. Tale valore potrebbe essere inferiore rispetto alla media del 2000-2010, ma è maggiore del tasso di crescita degli anni '80 e '90 – decenni che solitamente non sono considerati deludenti da un punto di vista economico.

Un calo della performance di paesi particolari offre ulteriori spunti di riflessione. Nonostante i significativi traumi politici, gli Stati Uniti e il Regno Unito hanno performato secondo le attese. Anche Cina, India e Giappone hanno assistito a una crescita vicina al loro potenziale. Caso abbastanza raro, nessuna economia principale ha registrato una performance sensibilmente migliore rispetto al suo potenziale.

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